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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/12 (afternoon edition) (141 comments)

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  •  Disconnect between head and heart today (12+ / 0-)

    I gotta admit, I let polls, even unreliable ones, move my emotions, even as I know better in my head.

    So today, my heart is sinking just a little.

    My head says remain calm, be patient, follow through on door-knocking tomorrow, know that the electoral college map still very strongly favors us.

    But I don't dare look at the RCP or Pollster chart today, already knowing what they say from people's tweets.

    The thing I wonder is did the bleeding stop sometime during this week, maybe early in the week?  Or did it continue for longer?  Is it continuing now?  I don't think so, I think it stopped, but we're not in a comfortable place.

    And what makes this nerve-wracking is the fact we are, indeed, just 25 days out.

    I really just want to get it all over with, jump ahead to November 6th and get this done.

    But alas, 25 days we must wait.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 02:05:37 PM PDT

    •  I have the luxury (4+ / 0-)

      of having homework at all times to distract me from all this.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 02:13:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That was one sucky week, (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacman701, LordMike, Chachy, MBishop1, askew

      and yes, that's a technical term. I'm beyond relieved it's over.

      I think you're right that the bleeding has stopped. My sense is that we're seeing what near-term levels of support and resistance are for both Obama and Romney -- kind of like on a stock chart.

      And coincidentally, at least according to the Pollster model, Romney's resistance is almost the same as Obama's support, at around 47. We were just at 49 a few weeks ago. It should be much easier for us to get to that level again than it will for Romney, who's never been higher than he is right now. (The levels are somewhat different on RCP, but the principle's basically the same.)

      I think a lot of this is about enthusiasm and response bias, and so when Obama comes out fighting (respectfully) or Romney takes another hit of some kind, we should see some natural reversion to the mean. Along those lines, the polls for Obama might be something like a compressed coil right now. Then again, they might not, but I think there's a good case to be made that this move has been overdone.

      PS. Door-knocking is good for you! :)

      •  He still hasn't bounced to 50 either (6+ / 0-)

        49% is the furthest in any single poll and as you say, 47% is the highest his average has gone all campaign. Obama went to 50 in at least ten different polls post-convention and beyond in some. His highest average of the campaign is about 49%.

        As a comparison, during 2004 the highest Bush average of the campaign was 50% and 48% for Kerry. Might mean nothing but might mean something.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 02:49:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  mostly agree (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, LordMike, MBishop1, madmojo

        Two weeks ago I think the Dems were close to their ceiling and the GOP was close to its floor. Now it's reversed, and as such Dems have more room to grow.

        This is looking a lot like 2004. Before the first debate Bush was artificially high and Kerry artificially low, then that was reversed after the debate, and after that Bush got back some of the ground he had lost and went on to win aided by his superior ground game. I think the first debate this year temporarily energized Republicans and depressed Democrats and probably prevented a big Dem wave (which would have required Romney to stay stuck in a downward spiral until election day), but it didn't do anything to change the fundamentals. I think Obama still wins, and probably by a bit more than Bush did in 04.

        In terms of odds, I had Romney at 4% before the debate and about 15% now. This is still Obama's race to win. If he does what he needs to do, there's nothing Romney can do.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 02:51:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I peg it at 47-46 currently (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, itskevin, DCCyclone

          It just feels all very up in the air to me. I read Jacoby the other day talking about the president's support post-convention being an inch thick. I do get the same sense about Romney right now. The most amazing thing to me is how Obama's job approval seems to be hanging in there at about 49-48.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 03:00:39 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That job approval is key (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, KingofSpades, askew

            He's not going to lose with positive job approval.  RCP has him at 49.4-47.8, and just the 4 October polls average out to 49.8-47.3.  Pollster's chart has Obama's job approval at 49.3-47.6.  Obama's favorables are 51-45 in Pollster and 51-46 in RCP.  Those are all winning numbers.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 04:21:46 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  FL, CO, and VA (0+ / 0-)

        They've all gone red at Five Thirty Eight.  They have to turn back to blue before I can say the bleeding has stopped.  I'm really afraid that all the other swing states are going to follow instead?

    •  If it's any consolation (4+ / 0-)

      Neither RCP nor Pollster showed major movement towards Romney by the end of the day - in fact in the natl' head-to-heads at least, Romney was slightly down from where he was yesterday. Just R +0.2 in Pollster and +1.0 in RCP.

      Still, it's a really dicey situation. I think Obama is still favored, but I think the feeling you're describing applies to me and many other commentators: for the first time this entire race, it's dawning that Romney could actually win. And no, it isn't like a 10% chance - it's like at least a 33% chance and getting dangerously close to 50%.

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