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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/12 (afternoon edition) (141 comments)

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  •  That was one sucky week, (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sacman701, LordMike, Chachy, MBishop1, askew

    and yes, that's a technical term. I'm beyond relieved it's over.

    I think you're right that the bleeding has stopped. My sense is that we're seeing what near-term levels of support and resistance are for both Obama and Romney -- kind of like on a stock chart.

    And coincidentally, at least according to the Pollster model, Romney's resistance is almost the same as Obama's support, at around 47. We were just at 49 a few weeks ago. It should be much easier for us to get to that level again than it will for Romney, who's never been higher than he is right now. (The levels are somewhat different on RCP, but the principle's basically the same.)

    I think a lot of this is about enthusiasm and response bias, and so when Obama comes out fighting (respectfully) or Romney takes another hit of some kind, we should see some natural reversion to the mean. Along those lines, the polls for Obama might be something like a compressed coil right now. Then again, they might not, but I think there's a good case to be made that this move has been overdone.

    PS. Door-knocking is good for you! :)

    •  He still hasn't bounced to 50 either (6+ / 0-)

      49% is the furthest in any single poll and as you say, 47% is the highest his average has gone all campaign. Obama went to 50 in at least ten different polls post-convention and beyond in some. His highest average of the campaign is about 49%.

      As a comparison, during 2004 the highest Bush average of the campaign was 50% and 48% for Kerry. Might mean nothing but might mean something.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 02:49:18 PM PDT

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    •  mostly agree (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, LordMike, MBishop1, madmojo

      Two weeks ago I think the Dems were close to their ceiling and the GOP was close to its floor. Now it's reversed, and as such Dems have more room to grow.

      This is looking a lot like 2004. Before the first debate Bush was artificially high and Kerry artificially low, then that was reversed after the debate, and after that Bush got back some of the ground he had lost and went on to win aided by his superior ground game. I think the first debate this year temporarily energized Republicans and depressed Democrats and probably prevented a big Dem wave (which would have required Romney to stay stuck in a downward spiral until election day), but it didn't do anything to change the fundamentals. I think Obama still wins, and probably by a bit more than Bush did in 04.

      In terms of odds, I had Romney at 4% before the debate and about 15% now. This is still Obama's race to win. If he does what he needs to do, there's nothing Romney can do.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 02:51:49 PM PDT

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      •  I peg it at 47-46 currently (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, itskevin, DCCyclone

        It just feels all very up in the air to me. I read Jacoby the other day talking about the president's support post-convention being an inch thick. I do get the same sense about Romney right now. The most amazing thing to me is how Obama's job approval seems to be hanging in there at about 49-48.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 03:00:39 PM PDT

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        •  That job approval is key (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, KingofSpades, askew

          He's not going to lose with positive job approval.  RCP has him at 49.4-47.8, and just the 4 October polls average out to 49.8-47.3.  Pollster's chart has Obama's job approval at 49.3-47.6.  Obama's favorables are 51-45 in Pollster and 51-46 in RCP.  Those are all winning numbers.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 04:21:46 PM PDT

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    •  FL, CO, and VA (0+ / 0-)

      They've all gone red at Five Thirty Eight.  They have to turn back to blue before I can say the bleeding has stopped.  I'm really afraid that all the other swing states are going to follow instead?

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