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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/12 (afternoon edition) (141 comments)

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  •  also (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    Ohio actually turned out to be unrealistically close.  That is, people would not have thought that while Bush won so decisively overall, he would have lost so narrowly in Ohio.  And the election indeed would have turned on Ohio.  It may have been a case of divergence between national and swing polling, but also actual performance, in the end.

    Plus we are not looking just at Ohio. Obama is irrationally strong across most of the swing states, except Wisconsin.  And he's still sitting in a position like 2008, where his opponent must run the table on swing states, he only needs a few.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 03:05:31 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Ohio didn't diverge that much from the natl' vote (0+ / 0-)

      In Ohio it was Bush over Kerry, 50.8 - 48.7.

      Nationally, it was Bush over Kerry, 50.7 - 48.3.

      Moreover, Bush's final margin - 2.4 - was slightly more than the averages indicated. RCP had it at Bush +1.5.

      •  given Ohio's PVI at the time (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca

        that was quite a divergence.  Gore lost Ohio by 4 points while winning the popular vote.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 05:50:23 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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