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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/12 (afternoon edition) (141 comments)

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  •  You're wrong about the 04 swing states (3+ / 0-)
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    KingofSpades, MBishop1, askew

    Kerry didn't lead in the Ohio or Florida polling averages, and it was a must-have to win one of them.  Kerry trailed Bush in the final RCP averages in those states and also Wisconsin, which Kerry barely won anyway.

    Looking at the charts of polls in these states, Kerry led in only 3 of the final 13 Wisconsin polls, and for October forward Kerry trailed Bush in 10 of 19 Wisconsin polls and led in 7, with 2 ties.

    In Florida, Kerry led in only 11 of 35 October polls, with Bush leading in 19 and 5 ties.

    In Ohio, Kerry led in 11 of the first 19 October polls, with 2 ties and 6 Bush leads, but Bush then led in 9 of the final 10, all the final week before the election.

    What hurt Kerry was how tough he had it in states he won:  the RCP averages had him leading by less than 4 in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota.  Kerry also trailed in most polls in Iowa and split the 10 New Mexico polls 5-5 with Bush, both states he lost.

    I've gone into this before, the map is just so much more favorable for Obama than any Democrat in my lifetime that it's not even funny.  Everything Kerry won is secure except Wisconsin, and New Mexico is secure which Kerry lost.  Iowa and Wisconsin are the only competitive states that we won at least once in 2000 or 2004.  And those were elections where we came damn close to winning, any state in 2000 and either of two close big states in 2004.

    Meanwhile, tossups include Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada, none of which were top battleground targets in 2000 or 2004 although Nevada was a secondary opportunity that became more serious toward the end in 2004.

    And we have a lead in Ohio that no Democrat has enjoyed in a long time; Obama's RCP average is skewed downward right now by several junk polls, but both NBC/Marist and this week's National Journal report on Obama's private polling reveal Obama in reality still has a decent lead there.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 05:57:49 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  you forgot NH (1+ / 0-)
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      DCCyclone

      we won that in 2004, and I'd still call it competitive.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 06:40:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not the first time (0+ / 0-)

        I've consistently overlooked NH in thinking about the map.  Partly it's geography, NH is an island far from any other competitive state and easy to forget when picturing the map.  And part of it is that it's the smallest swing state, only 4 electoral votes...hard to picture NH mattering in the outcome, even though there are plenty of scenarios where it could.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 07:28:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  That's true (0+ / 0-)

      And in hindsight, Democrats had rose-colored glasses on, getting exuberant at any polls that had Kerry ahead, even though Bush actually led most Ohio polls.

      All I was saying was, overall, Kerry's OH polls were a little more favorable than the national numbers - I remember lots of predictions going into Election Day that Kerry would win while losing the popular vote.

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