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View Diary: Gallup: R 49 - O 47 (230 comments)

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  •  this poll surprised me, too... (1+ / 0-)
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    ...because logic would indicate that with last Thursday's numbers falling off of this...that should, theoretically, help President Obama.

    It makes me wonder about a couple of things: Last Thursday, wasn't Gallup still using "Registered Voters (RV)" numbers in the tracking poll and didn't they switch to "Likely Voters (LV)" on Sunday? If that were the case, that could mean that Romney's initial Likely Voter "bounce" on Thursday was not that high compared to those same Thursday numbers translated into the "Registered Voter" model.

    In addition, it also makes me wonder if, perhaps, Romney's primary polling benefit in this tracking poll might not have started on Friday and gone into Saturday and even Sunday. The reason for thinking that is that the debate was Wednesday and even those who watched the debate hadn't necessarily had time to process everything yet, especially all of the post-debate "angst"  among Democrats which starting late Wednesday, but continued to build.

    Rasmussen's three-day tracker shows President Obama back in the lead, although just by a point, but an increase, if my memory serves correctly, from yesterday, when they were tied.

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