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View Diary: What if Romney's gains are mostly where it doesn't matter? (88 comments)

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  •  have you looked at RAND intention to vote? (1+ / 0-)
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    brooklynbadboy

    I hadn't looked at RAND in a few days. So my first reaction was, "Damn." Which was valid.

    My second reaction was to notice that the drop from 10/9 to 10/10 largely owes to a steep drop in Obama supporters' intention to vote, which had actually been edging up (probably because some unlikely-to-vote Obama supporters were becoming non-supporters). I'm not sure how to interpret that, especially when it depends on who is rolling off from the previous week. But it's interesting.

    Election protection: there's an app for that!
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    by HudsonValleyMark on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:51:22 PM PDT

    •  Doesn't look good for now. (0+ / 0-)

      I was waiting until today to get a full look at Rand since by now it is not accounting for Thursday and Friday of last week.

      You'll notice Friday dropped off and still there was a drop in intention to vote. That could mean that the Obama Campaign has some sort of messaging issue that isn't firing up core Dems. I can't even begin to speculate what that is.

    •  One thing we could speculate on as to why (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Supavash

      this is happening is that people have already voted via Obama's early ground game and that therefore they would have to respond "no" on intention to vote since they've already voted. I don't know. That could also mean 100% yes, depending on how they read it.

      Rand needs to account for the fact that not everybody is going to vote on election day.

      •  right, it "should" be 100/100... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        brooklynbadboy

        but looking at the survey, people might have to deduce that it should be 100/100. I didn't immediately see anything in the methods report about early voting.

        I did see that they weight to reported 2008 vote -- which perhaps is not a great idea, since people's reports of past votes aren't necessarily accurate. Then I sternly told myself to get out of the weeds.

        Election protection: there's an app for that!
        Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

        by HudsonValleyMark on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 02:25:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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