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View Diary: Nate is WRONG! Today is certainly NOT Romney's Best Day Ever (109 comments)

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  •  Nate Silver has a forecasting model (7+ / 0-)

    and I'm guessing this was the best day ever for Nate's model, not necessarily for the polls that came out today. I haven't really been following Nate closely this election (until a couple of weeks ago, I really had little reason to do so), but I think I remember that there was some lag time between when new polls came out and when Nate's model reflected them.

    It doesn't mean Nate personally thinks one way or the other about Obama or about Romney, it's just what his dispassionate analysis tells him. It also doesn't mean he's necessarily right, but if I had to choose anyone to believe about this kind of thing, I'd pick Nate over anyone I can think of right now.

    The model could reflect an upward shift next week. If you think about it, if it just stays the same, that wouldn't be too terrible either. Our team is still heavily favored. I would love it if Romney declined after this, but I'm not so sure we'll see that. For now I'm looking for (and expecting) signs that Romney has peaked more than I'm looking for the model to move more toward our side.

    Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

    by NMDad on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 05:22:09 PM PDT

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