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View Diary: Nate is WRONG! Today is certainly NOT Romney's Best Day Ever (109 comments)

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  •  I almost think that (0+ / 0-)

    It was a bad thing that Obama got such a big bounce after the Democratic Convention since it gave us all a false sense of security that this was pretty much a lock for O.  Now that the polls have shifted back to about where they were before the conventions lots of people are freaking out.  In all likelihood the polls were going to revert back to the mean.  Romney is a good debater and even if Obama hadn't phoned it in (being generous), it is likely that he would have picked up strength in the polls.  All Romney had to do was seem semi-human for 90 minutes for his poll numbers to get better.  Obviously, Obama's performance shifted things faster and farther than would have otherwise happened, but I'm taking some solace in the fact that even at his worst, O is still better than even to win this thing (plus the ground game and early voting advantage).  If you look at the last 10 days on Intrade you'll see that while Romney has maintained most of his bounce, the bleeding has been stopped.  If the pres. has a good debate (and I think he will), I predict the numbers will settle back to say 65-35% on Intrade/Nate Silver.  Obama's campaign has been stellar (minus the debate) and I think they have the strategy to get the pres. back in position, he just has to execute.

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