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View Diary: Another option besides Nate Silver (40 comments)

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  •  He seems careful and analytical (5+ / 0-)

    Two things in very very short supply these days

    Never believe your own press, never drink your own KoolAid

    by Mindful Nature on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 06:02:09 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  At least, we should be careful not to shoot the (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mindful Nature, jedennis, jessical

      messenger.

      •  Yeah,.... But,..... If I boasted that something (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        elwior

        has an 85% chance of occurrence, and then walked that back to 50-50 over the course of a couple of weeks, in my line of work I'd probably be shamed out of my career.  I'm not saying he didn't or isn't interpreting the polls correctly at the time he read them, but the early polls are now so far off that in hindsight pollsters should be embarrassed.

        and their contempt for the Latin schools was applauded by Theodoric himself, who gratified their prejudices, or his own, by declaring that the child who had trembled at a rod would never dare to look upon a sword.

        by ban48 on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 06:29:07 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  things can and do change (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jessical, BusyinCA

          and I suspect that the President will regain much of his earlier margin. Then Nate's numbers will go up. You know that's all they are: numbers. They're based on the polls.

          You mention the early polls. We all remember how Hillary Clinton was going to be nominated because she was so far ahead. Well, now we have more recent polls, affected by recent events and soon we'll have newer polls affected by things that haven't happened yet. (I better be careful so as not to sound like Rumsfeld!)

          When it comes down to it, there's only one poll that matters and that's something that we can affect. I think. I'm not 100% convinced the election is legitimate but let's say it is! Then any GOTV that we do will matter.

        •  @ban48 - Nate has never done that. (0+ / 0-)

          Perhaps you misunderstand what a Nowcast is.

          •  Meh. What I'm saying is he shouldn't be doing (0+ / 0-)

            his Nowcast on the election any more than he should Nowcast the effect of a meteor strike on Los Angeles.

            and their contempt for the Latin schools was applauded by Theodoric himself, who gratified their prejudices, or his own, by declaring that the child who had trembled at a rod would never dare to look upon a sword.

            by ban48 on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 07:53:26 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Ah, I see. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jessical

          So Nate is supposed to change his model so people here don't get the vapors?

          Give me a break.

          Compassion is not weakness, and concern for the unfortunate is not socialism.

          by Zutroy on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 07:56:47 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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