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View Diary: Excluding GOP polls, still looking good for Dems (84 comments)

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  •  I agree, I think it is too soon for panic and I am (4+ / 0-)
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    PALiberal1, live1, alkatt, FiredUpInCA

    shocked that it seems more people are in a panic than were in a panic earlier this week. I thought this week when the polling got close, more would panic them. Today it seems a whole new panic has started because of polls taken before the Debate with Joe last night.

    I may be put too much emphasis on this but that abortion issue and some other things Joe mentioned and scored big points on might win back some of the squishy middle, particularly women, we may have lost in the last week.

    Heads up, a panic may start because of Tweets from PPP that polling in Ohio has tightened up and it is very very close. I saw some panic on another thread.

    I expected a close election and there is still time to move numbers.

    Now if it is Halloween or November 1st and the polls look bad and Nate says Obama has less than a 5O pct chance of winning, then I will say we are in big trouble and probably won;t win.

    Anyone else with me , that now is the time to double down on GOTV and phone banking and going to the nearest OFA office and volunteering..rather than just panic 3 weeks out?

    Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

    by wishingwell on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 06:27:03 PM PDT

    •  As I mentioned above, (4+ / 0-)

      PPP was O+4 two weeks ago. So close to a tie after Obama's roughest patch of the entire cycle doesn't seem like much of a stretch. In fact, it seems almost to be expected.

    •  Ohio is close, probably (6+ / 0-)

      But it isn't a "Toss Up". Even if it's within 2-3 points, Obama has a distinct advantage there due to the fact that he's still ahead in the worst phase of his campaign, and his ground game and banked early votes.

      •  But the Voter Suppression is Serious Here, There's (0+ / 0-)

        still no non-working-hours early voting unlike 2008, and they've got Obama last on the ballot underneath quite a few indy/3rd party candidates with Mitt on top. Plus they've changed and eliminated many precincts in blue zones and they're shorting voting machines.

        If Obama's +1 on election day the state will be called early for Mitt.

        We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

        by Gooserock on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 06:40:21 PM PDT

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        •  Kos says the ballots differ per district though (1+ / 0-)
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          and not the same through the entire state.  

          Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

          by wishingwell on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 07:51:33 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  a bold prediction (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wishingwell, bridav58, Arnie

          The situation you describe doesn't sound materially worse than 2004, and that year Bush's margin in Ohio was about the same as the pre-election polling.

          In important respects, the situation seems materially better than in 2004. Some of the worst machines have been replaced, and lots of people are voting early or absentee. Ohio has ballot rotation; I think you will find that in most precincts Obama is above Romney, not on the bottom.

          I'm guessing that Ohio will have the best election protection operation ever seen -- and I'm guessing that it will have plenty to do. But I don't see how you get to: "If Obama's +1 on election day the state will be called early for Mitt."

          Election protection: there's an app for that!
          Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

          by HudsonValleyMark on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 07:52:07 PM PDT

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    •  why would Anyone FALL for his lies. beyond me (1+ / 0-)
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      •  My husband says a lot of low information voters (0+ / 0-)

        where he works are telling him that they did not pay attention until the last two weeks. Then they said their parents or a friend told them Obama was not born in this country and he is a Moslem. They said they did not know that before. He debunked all of it but some say they believe because their mother would not lie to them or their sister woudl not lie to them.  He tried and tried and it seems they never heard any of these rumors 4 years ago but heard them now. ?  

        He is thinking most leave work and go home to their caves.  He said he expected to run into some undecided  low information who would whine about obamacare or taxes or other such issues we hear about. But he said

        I have a few coworkers who still are undecided because they think Mitt belongs to a cult but they cannot vote for a foreign borh Muslim either.
        He said it is rough..low information is one thing but no information or wrong information and CT types abound  who are also low information.

        Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

        by wishingwell on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 09:24:25 PM PDT

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        •  I mean foreign born, but I recall the days as I (0+ / 0-)

          have been volunteering for Democrats for years where we might have to convince an undecided based on issues like jobs, the economy, taxes,  social security, or he says...

          I never thought I would end up working with undecideds who say they cannot choose between a cult member Mormon and a foreign born Muslim.
          I thought this birther stuff was just Teabauchery that was there but not huge..but some undecideds are saying they believe it or it makes them doubt voting for Obama ..

          I said/..

          Don;t worry, bet they never voted for him, hard to believe they are believing birther stuff now and not 4 years ago enough to change their vote based on birther family members.

          Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

          by wishingwell on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 09:29:14 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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