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View Diary: Nervous conservatives attack Nate Silver for predicting Obama win (33 comments)

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  •  Just Sayin' (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    freelunch, Demi Moaned, Supavash

    last week, or was it two weeks ago (this campaign seems fucking endless), when Obama's numbers were plummeting after the first debate...many, many folks here were screaming about Nate and 538.  Why?  For exactly the same reason the folks you mention are doing it now.

    All I am saying is that as far as the dumb concerns about 538 go, there is plenty to go around.

    "Empty vessels make the loudest sound, they have the least wit and are the greatest blabbers" Plato

    by Empty Vessel on Mon Oct 22, 2012 at 04:51:35 PM PDT

    •  It is universally done by ppl who fail at math (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Supavash

      And really, it's genuine concern that their side (either one) is losing.

      More importantly, it's a neat insight into how human beings can partition off information that doesn't fit their preconceived notions.

      IE, "Obama is winning" becomes the fact, not the theory. Therefore, if Silver says "Things look better for Romney", the previous fact causes some kind of cognitive dissonance that shows itself, in these cases, as antipathy toward Silver.

      Hence the "shoot the messenger" theme throughout history, particularly among despotic regimes where truth is less important than "whatever the fuck the despot wants to hear".

      See also: Cobra Commander. :)

    •  Shoot the messenger? (4+ / 0-)

      I think I heard this on Nate's recent appearance on Fresh Air. He told of a pollster who said that when you give conservatives an unfavorable poll they want to shoot you and when you give liberals an unfavorable poll they want to shoot themselves.

      That's kind of what my mood was like and I don't think I was alone.

      "The smartest man in the room is not always right." -Richard Holbrooke

      by Demi Moaned on Mon Oct 22, 2012 at 05:18:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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