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View Diary: Can we give Nate Silver his due? (268 comments)

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  •  100% this (5+ / 0-)

    I knew it did more than just that, but I couldn't find the post that said exactly what it did, and I knew that it changed the weighting of polls based upon actual past accuracy and things of that nature.

    That's the main reason I didn't like the dismissal of Silver's work to give praise to the pollsters, when a whole lot of work goes into that pudding over and above a whole bunch of phone calls and web clicks being averaged.

    •  People often tell pollsters (5+ / 0-)

      they're undecided or independent (I notice alot of conservative friends doing this these days) when in reality the last Democrat they voted for was Grover Cleveland. In a past life.

      Nate's model shakes out these fake moderates by checking past voting results against what people are telling the pollsters. Actually his model gives greater weight to past actual vote totals than to polls. Because, sure... things change. But past behavior is still the best predictor of future actions.

      You can do whatever you want to us, but we're not going to sit here and listen to you badmouth the United States of America.

      by Eric Stratton on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 08:21:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Point of Order (5+ / 0-)

        Nate Silver is a statistician, not a pollster.  Pollsters can't project the numbers forward, statisticians can.  Nate uses high math and isn't a nose counter, he is a mathematical analyst.

        "It's too LATE to stop now!" - John Lee Hooker

        by Rolfyboy6 on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 09:29:30 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I understand that. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          davidincleveland, Sklz711

          Pollsters do what they do, and most do it fairly well. Of course this is why the whole skewing bullshit was so comically off. The partisan ID could just be Republicans being unhappy with their brand. Same thing can happen to Dems.

          I remember before the 2000 election when all I had to go on was those stupid national polls and the wisdom of folks like Chuck Todd and Wolf Blitzer. Thank God those days are over.

          You can do whatever you want to us, but we're not going to sit here and listen to you badmouth the United States of America.

          by Eric Stratton on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 09:37:16 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  He Guards Against Lying Pollsters Too... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Sklz711

          Nate is fantastic.   In 2014, 2016, etc, the Right might (probably will) try to game the system more (beyond Rasmussen's bull), maybe creating a slew of new right-leaning polling companies to cook polling numbers... so that averages of all the polls will lean Right... in a case like that, Nate's model will factor that in, probably assigned almost no weight to the fly-by-night pollsters.

          "Don't look back... something might be gaining on you..." -Satchel Paige.

          by npb7768 on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 07:54:11 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

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