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View Diary: Can we give Nate Silver his due? (268 comments)

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  •  ? (0+ / 0-)

    Silver's most likely result was 332.
    That's the result that we have (counting Ohio and Florida for Obama).

    Wang did not have that result as most likely. (It was a close second. Both were given as less than 20 percent.)

    There isn't much to say either way here, but there isn't any way I can see that  Wang "seems to have been closer in his EV prediction".

    The plural of anecdote is not data.

    by Skipbidder on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 03:58:29 AM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  silver (0+ / 0-)

      predicted less than 332, something like 314, whereas wang called it earlier. silver's results then adjusted in the last few days and ended up comporting more with wang's results.

      to me it's like the GFS versus the Euro model with regards to Sandy. they both ended up calling landfall in NJ and did a great job, but the Euro model predicted the move a few days before the other model and ended up being more accurate.

      anyone born after the McDLT has no business stomping around acting punk rock

      by chopper on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 06:24:16 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  in fact (0+ / 0-)

        go to 538. you'll find his model's forecast still says 313-225.

        both did find 330 or so to be the most common scenario but nate's final prediction was 313.

        a good job overall. this shit is hard to predict and FL was a really tight one.

        anyone born after the McDLT has no business stomping around acting punk rock

        by chopper on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 06:29:17 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

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