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View Diary: This election feels different (278 comments)

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  •  Kennedy may realize (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Andrew C White, UniC, FarWestGirl

    which way the wind is blowing and decide that it is finally time.  A more liberal and much younger replacement for him would be huge.  

    Using social security actuarial tables, Scalia's life expectancy right now, at age 76, is 10 more years.  Thomas's is 18 years.  They both have great health insurance, but anger and hubris tend to balance that out.  The chance of one or the other dying in the next four years?  Maybe somewhere around 40-50%.  

    If the numbers work in our favor... then we have a Supreme Court with more balance.  If not... then we still may have a sufficiently different America in 2016 that another Scalia or Bork or Alito won't be nominated, even if the other side gets back in.

    The alternative - Ginsberg at 79 and ill and Mitt in office - is too terrifying to contemplate.  

    “If the misery of the poor be caused not by the laws of nature, but by our institutions, great is our sin.” Charles Darwin

    by ivorybill on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:07:52 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  Yup... the key was protecting Ginsberg's seat (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DeadHead, UniC, ivorybill

      Obama may or may not have an opportunity to replace one of the so-called conservatives. The next President, 2016 and beyond, most certainly will.

      "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

      by Andrew C White on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 12:55:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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