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View Diary: The GOP will not gain Southern House seats in 2014 (29 comments)

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  •  2010 was a particularly bad year (9+ / 0-)

    To pick to get creamed at the state level.  If Pat Quinn hadn't unexpectedly hung onto the IL governorship by a few thousand votes, we'd be 4 seats further back.

    Nate Silver is to Joe Scarborough as Billy Beane is to Grady Fuson

    by Superribbie on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 02:30:55 PM PST

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    •  people didn't... (5+ / 0-)

      vote...23 million people under 30 voted in 2008, only 9 million in 2010.

      "It's almost as if we're watching Mitt Romney on Safari in his own country." -- Jonathan Capeheart

      by JackND on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 02:54:31 PM PST

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      •  Young people ignore midterms (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Young people showed up at about the same rate as they always did for the midterms.

        But with the historic passage of healthcare reform and it's subsequent end-of-Medicare-death-panel demonization, that energized seniors to participate at a higher rate than they had historically.

        The story of the 2010 midterms is that Democrats of every stripe showed up in roughly the same numbers that they always do in midterms.

        But Republicans overperformed in the midterms, with the the group that always shows up for midterms, seniors.

        Youth turnout was comparable to recent midterm years and remarkably stable. Youth didn’t vote more or less than they did, roughly speaking, than in other midterms. But they did vote less than they did in 2008. In 2008, youth voters made up 18% of the electorate; this year, they made up 11%.

        You had an older electorate of angry voters who believed Obama stole their freedom and cut their Medicare. The results are pretty clear. While it’s slightly comforting to see the trend of young voters supporting Democrats in big numbers, it’s unclear that will always hold as people age.

        If the Democrats don’t want to go through this every four years in off-elections, they need to build their advantage on the type of voters who actually turn out in midterm elections. There’s evidence that Latinos had pretty darn good turnout in 2010, and probably saved Harry Reid’s bacon in Nevada. That’s one place to start.
        In 2010, an estimated 22.8% of eligible young American citizens voted, consistent with the past few midterm elections, which was consistent with participationates in midterm elections dating back to 1994. (EXIT POLLS, CIRCLE)

        The youth vote surged in key states where Rock the Vote was on the ground. At North Carolina Central University, turnout was 13 times higher in 2010 than it
        was in 2006. At the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, turnout increased 31%. At the University of Florida, turnout increased by 49% and at the
        University of Pennsylvania, turnout increased by 46%. (Rock the Vote)

        In 2010, under-30 voters were the only age demographic to vote for Democrats, with the youngest voters (18‐24 year olds) giving Democrats a 19-point margin.

        Young Republicans represented a larger portion of the electorate compared to 2008 with 31% of young voters identifying themselves as conservative compared
        to 26% identifying as Republican in 2008. (EXIT POLLS, CIRCLE)

        The choice of our lifetime: Mitt Romney, It Takes A Pillage or President Barack Obama, Forward Together.

        by FiredUpInCA on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 03:29:40 PM PST

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        •  That might change if Obama campaigns (0+ / 0-)

          In 2010 times were still really bad and no one wanted to stand on a stage with him. If things are improving in 2014 then he could be a secret weapon.

          Patriot: the person who can holler the loudest without knowing what he is hollering about. Mark Twain

          by Deathtongue on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 07:49:34 PM PST

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      •  Bingo !! Black Eisenhower needs to learn (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        one lesson from (Pennsylvania Dutch) Eisenhower.

        Do a couple hundred press conferences.

        Get out there.

        Don't use surrogates. Do it right. Do it yourself.

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