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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Weekly Open Thread: Saturday Edition (521 comments)

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  •  I'm really hankering for some (4+ / 0-)

    final national popular vote results so I can do a very refined PVI calculation.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 03:47:13 PM PST

    •  PVI = ????? (0+ / 0-)

      pvi pvi pvi pvi pvi

      what the bleep is it?

      damn!   personal vaginal insert?

      permanent vacant imbalance?

      present valuable income?

      pupillary vanilla injection?

      •  perverse voter index? (0+ / 0-)

        parabolic venting indicator?

        •  are you drunk? (11+ / 1-)

          rude rude rude rude rude...

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

          by wwmiv on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 09:57:33 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  No - but PVI is meaningless to most readers (0+ / 0-)

            And writing "are you drunk" in your headline violates dkos policy in that it constitutes a personal attack.

            The only thing that was rude was "personal ..inset," and it wasn't meant to upset, actually,, but if anyone found that particular word upsetting, my sincere apologies to them.

            To the person who wrote PVI without saying what it means, the problem that I'm trying to bring to your attention is that hardly anyone knows what PVI is, or if it actually has any importance.

            •  Please describe PVI in words to clarify it. (0+ / 0-)

              That was the whole point of writing various joke versions, and one of the words was in sketchy taste, admittedly, and I would cut it if it was possible to edit (wish it was!).

              In another post, PVI is described as an index of trends in voting (the past two election results divided by another number).

              Now, and I am a lifelong liberal dem, just because there is a PVI score suggesting that there was a trend does not really tell us much.

              For example, in 1972, Nixon had a massive victory, and his PVI was absolutely gigantic (after the 1964 crushing of the GOP Goldwater), the GOP candidates went from a disastrous landslide loss to a major landslide win in only 8 years.

              So - if PVI is an index of trends over the past 8 years, then how useful is PVI, for example, knowing that Nixon won a big victory in 1972 did not mean that the GOP would hold the Presidency in 1976.

              In fact, 1976 was a very strong Democratic year.

              So, if anything, PVI may actually be a contrarian indicator, meaning that having the trend in one pair of elections may negatively predict outcomes 4 years later.

              Not only is it problematic to mention PVI as if everyone knows what it is, but it is more problematic to assume that it is a useful (or even a positive) predictor.

              •  simply because there's a landslide doesn't (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, sapelcovits

                throw off PVI unless its disproportionate in certain areas.  When determining PVI, you subtract the national portion of the popular vote from the particular one in the state/district you're looking at.  So if Obama got 53.68% of the 2-party vote in 2008 nationally (which he did), but 62.34% in a particular district, you would do this:
                62.34-53.68=8.66

                Then you do the same for Kerry.  Say he got 48.76% of the 2-party national vote in 2004 (which he did), but 52.46% of the vote in this hypothetical district we're looking at.  So we do this:
                52.46-48.76=3.7
                Then we simply average the two, so 3.7+8.66=12.36
                12.36/2=6.18
                so we get D+6.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 10:21:07 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  I'm being pretty nice (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sapelcovits

                But I'll answer your question instead of saying that because you've been rude, you can just go look it up yourself. It wouldn't have taken a great effort for you to look it up in Wikipedia instead of being an _ about it.

                Key points:

                The Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI), sometimes referred to as simply the Partisan Voting Index (PVI), is a measurement of how strongly an American congressional district or state leans toward one political party compared to the nation as a whole. [emphasis added]
                The index for each congressional district is derived by averaging its results from the prior two presidential elections and comparing them to national results.
                I hope that explains it.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 10:22:01 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  and the reason I didn't describe what it is (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Skaje, MichaelNY, sapelcovits, BeloitDem

                is because 98% of the people in this thread know what it is, and I'm talking to them.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 10:22:07 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Here is a link with (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen

                The definition of PVI. Note that PVI is not intended to predict the national popular vote, and in fact gives no indication of it at all. Here's how it's commonly used at DKE (and it's used a lot here):

                Presidential Races:

                While PVI can't predict the national popular vote at all, it can act as a guide for which states are likely to be swing states, and which of those are likely to favor the Democrat relative to the national popular vote. It's a reliable indicator of relative blueness or redness of different states.

                Congressional and Legislative Races:

                This is where PVI is really useful. House seats in particular have a strong tendency to follow their partisan leans, so we can tell the difference between, say, the OK-02 and WI-02 races this year, both in open seats vacated by Democrats (Dan Boren and Tammy Baldwin respectively). In both cases, the Democratic nominee was a good fit for a local Democrat, and the Republican nominee was a decent fit for a local Republican. Just on the basis of candidate quality, the races would be of similar difficulty.

                However, the districts have very different PVIs. WI-02 was D+16 by 2004-2008 numbers, meaning in a Presidential election with a tied popular vote, the Democrat would expect to get 66%. That means that a Democratic congressional candidate there, in this case Mark Pocan, will almost certainly win. While Pocan has limited crossover appeal (he's very liberal), the district is blue enough that he hardly needs any. He doubled up his opponent 68-32.

                OK-02 is a different story. It's about R+15, meaning in a tied national election, the Democrat would get only 35%. Our candidate, Rob Wallace, was a decent candidate, but the PVI indicates that people there don't like Democrats, at least at the Presidential level, and that increasingly translates to the local level as well. Thus, we rated the race Likely R because of how red the district was. Wallace would have had to win a lot of Romney voters, and wasn't quite good enough, losing 38-57.

                Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison)

                by fearlessfred14 on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 10:51:14 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  You can't click the hide button (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, HoosierD42, sapelcovits

              on somebody talking to you.  Against the rules.  Because people often have difficulty being objective in arguments they are participating in, it is up to the community to judge that stuff.

            •  The way you were behaving (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              wwmiv, sapelcovits

              It seemed like you were drunk. That's an honest remark by me. You seemed out of character, compared to how you'd previously behaved on DKE.

              If you want to know what an abbreviation whose meaning is widely known on this sub-site means, and you'd rather not Google it, the polite thing to do is say "What's PVI." People are usually happy to explain things if you ask politely. And you aren't going to get more respect by HRing people for calling you out for your behavior.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 10:17:34 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Thats exactly why I said it (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                I honesty thought he was. I said as much below in response to another comment he made that he was not being his/her normal cogent self.

                22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                by wwmiv on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 11:27:16 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  google it. (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, MichaelNY, sapelcovits, jncca, Skaje

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 10:04:27 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  california won't be done counting until 12/7 n/t (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

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