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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Weekly Open Thread: Saturday Edition (521 comments)

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  •  interesting thing baout 2012 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, WisJohn

    maybe someone's mentioned this already, if so, forgive me for bringing up old news, but were there any hopeful races for the GOP out of 2012?  Anything on the state level, something that tells them "we can compete here in a few cycles"?  In 2004, even though we lost the presidential race and even more senate seats, at least we could say we won a senate race in Colorado, a governor's race in Montana and we have a new charismatic senator from illinois.  Some Irish guy I think, Bill O'brien, or something like that.  What similar states does the GOP have?  North Carolina I suppose, but I don't think keeping a solid republican state a battleground is cause for celebration.  Nebraska?  Please.  Possible Missouri, which is clearly no longer a battleground, but in fairness we don't know if having a white nominee will change it back or not.  Aside from those, they don't have a consolation prize the way democrats did in 2004.

    Help, help, I'm in Connecticut!- Foamy the Squirrel.

    by DougTuttle on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 05:11:26 PM PST

    •  Appalachia (5+ / 0-)

      West Virginia will give them more and more opportunities in the future, and their House gain in Kentucky has to be considered a bright spot for them, too.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 05:25:14 PM PST

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      •  Yes, this was probably their most (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, NM Ward Chair, jncca

        promising, and in a state that Democrats have had solid control over for, oh, just the last 80 years and where the last Republican senator was elected 46 years ago that's nothing to sneeze at.

        I wouldn't be shocked at all if Republicans finally see their party capture the governors mansion concurrently with 1 or 2 legislative chambers.  Coal is just really hurting Dems even downballot in central Appalachia.

        Arkansas was fairly similar too though as they captured the legislature for the first time ever and the governors office will be open next cycle.

        Also, they gained a supermajority in the Missouri House so they can now override Nixon's vetoes more or less at will.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 05:37:11 PM PST

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      •  Missouri (4+ / 0-)

        Outstate Missouri (that area out of St. Louis and Kansas City) has become significantly redder.

        The Republicans now have veto-proof majorities in both houses of the General Assembly.

        Interestingly enough, statewide Democrats won all but one of the races, and that race was for Lt. Governor, who has some scandals, and should have lost.  The Democrat had been the Auditor.  

        From West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, to Missouri, white fundamentalists are bastions of Republicanism mixed with fear of a black man in the White House.

        Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens.

        by MoDem on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 07:35:23 PM PST

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    •  Dems will have better chances in the South-East & (0+ / 0-)

      in the Mounten-West in 2014 races.

      SC and GA Senate races will be in play for Democrats.

      House seats in AZ, CO, NV, MT will far more competitive for Democratic candidates.

      That's due to sharp demographic changes. Latinos and Asians heavily lean towards Democrats. Registration of these demographic groups will play a very crucial role in several battles for Congress seats in those regions.

      Democrats will regain control of the House and retain their control of the Senate in 2014. And that will be vital for Obama's administration overall competitiveness and will also boost the prospects of the next Democratic candidate to win the Presidency in 2016.

      •  AZ (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        We're maxed out in AZ, and three of the seats are marginal for us there. Sinema, Kirkpatrick, and Barber will face tough races no matter what we do.

        There are two races that we could win in CO and only one in NV - and we still have to defend a potentially vulnerable incumbent - and there's really no reason to believe that MT's AL seat will be competitive given that Gillan got basically the same percentage as Varilek and Gulleson in the Dakotas despite actual investment from the DCCC (granted, the Republicans and third party candidates in those races had a wider range, but all were above 53%) that was not given to the other two.

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

        by wwmiv on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 02:57:25 AM PST

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        •  Honestly (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          Our best opportunities are in California and that's pretty much it. Everywhere else we're going to be playing defense.

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

          by wwmiv on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 02:58:30 AM PST

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          •  Also (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, jncca

            And this wasn't even getting into whether or not S.C. as a Senate target is reasonable...

            Our Senate offensive map begins and ends with a Collins retirement announcement.

            22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

            by wwmiv on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 03:00:38 AM PST

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            •  Wrong attitude. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              I get where you are coming from, but there's no reason we couldn't play more offense if we wanted to do so.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 07:22:54 AM PST

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          •  New York might be possible (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            BeloitDem, jncca

            if Upstate continues to trend Democratic. Shinagawa needs to be financed if he wants to run again. And if King should retire, it's worth fighting for his district. There also might be targets in Michigan if really good candidates run and get plenty of funding. We could go down a list of other possibilities, but most of them are likely to need help from some unusual set of circumstances.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 03:23:36 AM PST

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      •  Your predictions are highly improbable (1+ / 0-)
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        On what basis are you forecasting a big wave for the Democrats in an off-year with a Democratic president in office? Just because you wish for something doesn't make it likely, let alone something you should assert as a truth.

        A more sober assessment would be that the Democrats are quite unlikely to win seats in SC or GA in 2014, but should do their best to run good candidates, anyway, on the off chance that the Republicans nominate someone so extreme a general electorate that figures to be older and whiter than in a presidential year might nevertheless vote against him/her. I think the likely scenario in SC is that Graham either resigns or is defeated in a primary, and the more right-wing man or woman who runs in the general election wins. Georgia might be a slightly more likely win for the Democrats, but still figures at this point to be unlikely.

        I don't see MT-AL being more competitive in 2014, unless the freshman Republican gets embroiled in some kind of scandal or something. (Were you aware that MT has only one Representative?)

        I think I agree that House seats in AZ, CO, and NV will be more competitive for Democratic candidates - in seats they already hold. Chances are, the DCCC will have to play more defense than offense, unless the Republicans in the House act so extremist and obstructionist that the public gets furious, and under what scenario do you predict that? They'd have to personally go after the president, such as by impeaching him for no legitimate reason. The public hasn't punished the Republicans for obstructionism - it rewarded them big-time in the last off-year election, 2010, and turned against them mildly this year, but insufficiently to turn more than 8 of them out of office, due to gerrymandering. Maybe the President and the Democrats in the Senate will adopt a more successful strategy of boxing the Republicans in the House into either compromising or losing public support, but I'll believe it when I see it.

        If you'd like to come back in March 2014 and give us a list of the House members you expect to lose, and reasons for your predictions, all of us would be more than happy.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 03:01:40 AM PST

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