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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Weekly Open Thread: Saturday Edition (521 comments)

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  •  There were some said redistricting no problem (0+ / 0-)

    here on kos, there were some very virulent attacks mounted against the idea that redistricting was going to hurt Dems in 2012.   Along the lines that people were uninformed fools if they didn't realize the Dems would gain as many as they lost due to redistricting.

    •  The House doesn't flip during Prez years usually (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY

      The last time it flipped in a Presidential year seems to be 1948.  Granted it doesn't flip much period compared to the Senate, but the trendline suggests that just looking at gerrymandering won't give you a full picture of the state of play there.  We will probably need D+5 at least to flip it though, but Republicans needed R+7 to do that in 2010 despite gerrymandering most of the districts in 2000.

      Not saying this is a situation that doesn't suck, but it isn't fatal.  The House is winnable, but it will take a lot of effort to do so and, unless Obama proves to be wildly popular in 2 years owing to some very good economic numbers or the like, it probably won't be happening in 2014 either.

    •  That doesn't sound like something (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, Zack from the SFV

      that would have happened at DKE, where we actually analyze things and don't just alternately cheerlead and panic, as happens in some main site threads - though some of both of those things happen here, too.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 10:40:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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