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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Weekly Open Thread: Saturday Edition (521 comments)

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  •  No Kerry! (3+ / 0-)

    I do not want Scott Brown taking that seat!  

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 07:18:22 AM PST

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    •  Yes Kerry! (0+ / 0-)

      Have Patrick run in the SE for the seat!

      They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

      by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 07:23:38 AM PST

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    •  I'm not (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      marieperoy

      from Massachusetts, so I probably don't really know what I'm talking about here, but I don't understand all this concern about Brown successfully taking Kerry's seat.

      This is a man who mostly won in the first place because Coakley ran a shitty campaign.  And he can't exactly cruise on the nice guy/moderate image anymore, after the campaign he ran against Warren.  So what reason is there to believe he'd be such a threat to our holding Kerry's seat, especially in a state that's normally so blue?

      •  several reasons (4+ / 0-)

        Brown has already run two senate campaigns in three years, so he has a statewide apparatus already in place.  

        Second, he's able to raise significantly more money than most of his democratic opponents.  

        Third, a crucial issue for warren, the composition of the senate, won't be a factor.  Brown winning won't make the senate republican controlled, if anything, the issue would favor brown by saying that he would limit the democratic senate and move it closer towards the center.

        Fourth, who would run?  Governors have a hard time when they appoint themselves to a seat, I'm not sure how that would work with a special election, if it's closer to a self appointment, or an election.  If someone else runs, well, mass candidates sometimes aren't used to running good statewide campaigns.  It's what happens when a state favors one party for so long, members of that party can get lazy and forget how to campaign.  We saw that with coakley and we could see it with another dem office holder who hasn't aced a real campaign in a decade.  

        Fifth, it means another potential seat we have to defend in 2014.  Let's say brown thinks 2014 will be a 2010 and lets a weak dem win the special and then runs and wins the 2014 election, getting 6 years in the senate.

        Warren was able to overcome all of these problems (except 5, which isn't relevant to her situation) because she was an exceptional candidate and it was a presidential election year.  Most of the dem advantages will be weakened or gone in a special, unless there's a really good candidate, while Brown's advantages will still be intact.  Heck, if he allows third party spending, a 2012 mistake I'm sure he regrets, he could be stronger in the special.  

        Find someone else Obama, please.

        Help, help, I'm in Connecticut!- Foamy the Squirrel.

        by DougTuttle on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 08:31:34 AM PST

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        •  We should not be "giving up" any seats... (3+ / 0-)

          ...in blue areas.  We'd lose a good liberal for a putz.  That is unacceptable.

          GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

          by LordMike on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 09:24:49 AM PST

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          •  Not to mention there are 7 seats up in red states (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, MichaelNY

            Before we even consider potentially competive races in NH, IA, OR, CO and MN. Not to mention possible retirements causing headaches in MI and NJ.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 09:33:27 AM PST

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        •  And then Sen. Menendez would be... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew, MichaelNY

          Senate Foreign Affairs Committee chairman. Ugh.

          Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

          by SaoMagnifico on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 11:16:16 AM PST

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          •  I think this is what will keep Kerry in Senate... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, The Caped Composer

            I've been thinking about this and I think we could see a 2 yr "place holder" Sec of State and then come 2014 Kerry will not run for re-election - but by that time I suspect Brown will have declared to run for Gov - opening up his seat for a full election rather than a special now.  Kerry will be named Sec of State for the final two years of the Obama Admin to cap his career.  

            Menendez problem would still be there, but at the same time GOP could take the Senate anyways.  

            As for who would be Sec State replacing Clinton - Tom Donilon.  First two years of re-election will be domestic heavy, and then come the midterms with the usual losses, it becomes FP heavy the second half.  So Dems will focus on tax reform and immigration as the big ticket domestic issues the next two years and then Kerry is moved into State in time for the FP push.  

            They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

            by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 11:54:57 AM PST

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