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View Diary: The First Shots Fired in the Coming GOP Civil War? (283 comments)

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  •  True. (0+ / 0-)

    But for how long. Liberals were ready to follow Howard Dean into the breach in late 2003. It was to be a righteous Charge of the Light Brigade into the general election. Then a funny thing happened, Democratic primary voters came to the conclusion that John Kerry was more electable than Dean, and his numbers collapsed in Iowa. In the end he lost every state but Vermont, many of them badly. Now maybe Kerry wasn't the better candidate. Maybe Dean would've done better. My sense is that 9/11 cooked the Democrats goose and no one was going to get over the top that year. Who knows? But the perception was that Kerry was better, and with some help from the party establishment he prevailed.

    Will the same hold true for the GOP? Not right away, but eventually I think it will. The GOP coalition is a mess right now, but then so was FDR's and LBJ's. I imagine more than a few Birchers voted for Eisenhower. At some point, the fever is going to break. At least for a time.

    You can do whatever you want to us, but we're not going to sit here and listen to you badmouth the United States of America.

    by Eric Stratton on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 05:57:53 PM PST

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    •  You're forgetting what the media did with the (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lotlizard, Aquarius40

      "Dean scream."  They made Dean seem unelectable, or at least heavily damaged in the court of public opinion.  This was one factor in the turn to Kerry.  I lament that, because Kerry was a weak candidate in that election, running against Mr. "Have a Beer with Ya" Bush.  What we needed was Dean's ability to rally populist sentiment, and Kerry never had that capacity.

      Romney was a terrifically weak candidate this year.  You mention the potential role of 9/11 in providing extra support for the incumbent president in 2004.  Well, it's somewhat analogous to what happened in this 2012 election:  the financial meltdown and great recession were keenly in people's minds and hearts, and they didn't blame those things on Obama.  The GOP then runs Romney, a fat cat financier who made his living from gutting businesses, shipping jobs to China, and avoiding the taxes everyone else in America can't get out of paying.  Romney was a weak candidate made doubly weak by the factor of people's awareness of the depredations of the Bush economic debacle.   And what Romney didn't have on his side were the media.

      Who knows what will happen in 2014?  My sense is that the GOP will be just as clueless in 2014 when it comes to picking a candidate, if the main interests funding and driving the party's platform continue to be rich people and corporations demanding tax cuts.  

      That's one more thing to add to my long list of small problems. --my son, age 10

      by concernedamerican on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 07:05:02 PM PST

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      •  And Sandy saved Obama. (0+ / 0-)

        Wishful thinking man. Iowa voters went with Kerry because of electability and nothing else. Dean was cooked after the first returns from Iowa streamed in, a few hours before he melted down on live TV. And he did, in fact, melt down. It's only natural. His political team were smart guys. They knew what finishing a distint 3rd in Iowa meant, especially whne the establishment guy scored a decisive win. Especially when that guy was from Massachusetts and the next stop was New Hampshire. Their numbers were going to go down and they were going to lose. The scream hastened his collapse, and the press piled on. But it wouldn't have mattered. Kerry was going to be the guy.

        And the biggest issue in 2004 was terrorism and 9/11. Iraq was 2nd and beer most certainly didn't factor into it. It wasn't going to happen, man. Sometimes the bad guys win.

        Listen, it's been almost 10 years. Let it go. Accept reality. People just didn't like Dean that much and they never would have. Maybe voters should like Dean as much as you do, but they don't. In fact, the very reason people like Obama so much more than Dean is because he doesn't do things like scream and rant like a madman. Because you know what, if CNN really did have magical powers to make Dean seem like a crazy person, they haven't been able to make Obama look that way. And lord knows they've tried.

        You can do whatever you want to us, but we're not going to sit here and listen to you badmouth the United States of America.

        by Eric Stratton on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 08:11:56 PM PST

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