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View Diary: The First Shots Fired in the Coming GOP Civil War? (283 comments)

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  •  The coalition (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Leap Year, Chris Jay, AoT

    hung together only so long as hanging together resulted in victories.  It's clear now that that isn't going to happen anymore.  The demographics are against them; and it is expected only to get worse moving forward.  Their only hope is to bring in some other faction. But who could that be?  I'm not saying there's not a group or interest that the GOP hasn't irreconciliably put off over the last few years.  I just can't think of who that would be.  
    Now they could change their rhetoric, alter their brand in order to bring in, say, hispanics, but, how long would that take?  And who else would it alienate?  
    Add to that the fact that many many of their voters have been voting against their best interest.  As the cracks widen, light will shine through and they will lose lots of folks - especially poor whites.
    I know this seems hyperbolic, but, I really think this is the end of the GOP - at least as it has identified itself since Nixon

    •  2014 still favors the GOP . . . (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      doinaheckuvanutjob, Joe B, J M F

      Consider that Dems will need to win 55 percent of the vote across the nation in order to recapture the House.

      e.g. thanks to gerrymandering during the last phase of redistricting.

      I don't think people are fully taking account of what this means.

      Right now the GOP is odds on favorite to retain the House in 2014.  It has some built in advantages beyond new GOP friendly districts -- the older, more habituated voting base typically shows up for mid-terms.

      I think 2010 was a high-water mark for the GOP, but I still would not be shocked if it held on to the House in 2014.  The only reason why it might not is if the GOP fractures and/or the GOP leadership severely bungles the next spate of legislative negotiations on things like the debt-ceiling.  Both of these are probably more likely than not, but I'm not convinced yet that it will result in Dems having enough to retake the House in 2014.  If the GOP retains the House in 2014, the party shold continue to hold together until 2016 when demographic changes are more likely to overtake it for the longer haul.

      •  You're right (0+ / 0-)

        about 55 per cent, but you're wrong that that will be hard to get.  There's two possibilities.  Either the GOP starts now rebranding in a way which enables them to win the White House again in the next 4 to 8 years or they don't.  If they do, they will lose at least one of the three groups which make up their coalition.  If that happens, 55 will be easy for the Dems.  If they don't, then you may be right and they hang on the House. But then they will lose seats in the Senate, they will lose the White House again in 16 and they will start to lose adherents as a result.  No on likes to be on the losing team time and time again.  Especially people with big money to contribute.  The GOP will lose the House by 18 as well as everything else.  
        But for these reasons and for others, I don't think the second possibility is likely and, indeed, we're seeing the first already play itself out.  Once Rush and Bill-O lose their authority over the party - and this is already happening, public questioning of their wisdom would never have happened like this four year ago - the dam will break.  
         

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