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View Diary: Before You Start Bashing Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) Read This (293 comments)

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  •  I agree with you, but PPP is not the most accurate (2+ / 0-)
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    SoCalSal, Code Monkey

    pollster.

    Far from it, actually, according to Nate Silver:

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/...

    They had a Republican + 1.6 bias and that bias is growing as the ballots on the West Coast and provisional ballots everywhere are being counted.

    "A candle loses nothing by lighting another candle" - Mohammed Nabbous, R.I.P.

    by Lawrence on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 02:47:01 PM PST

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    •  I remember seeing it claimed (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Lawrence

      that PPP had the best record of the cycle, before that 538 post was up. Anyone remember what the source of that was? I'm curious to see what might explain the discrepancy.

      (For instance, PPP was crazy-prolific, as that very post shows. If they polled more difficult races, that could bring their average error up. Made me curious to see what it would look like if Nate controlled for the difficulty of each race polled.)

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      Code Monkey like you!

      Formerly known as Jyrinx.

      by Code Monkey on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 03:20:16 PM PST

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      •  That claim was based on the final national poll (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Code Monkey

        of the pollsters and it was from Fordham's preliminary report on polling accuracy:

        http://www.fordham.edu/...

        On November 7, the polls that had a 2 point spread were the most accurate, but vote counting is continuing and Obama's margin is growing.  Currently, Pew, ABC/WashPo, Angus-Reid are the most accurate, since they predicted a 3 point margin.

        What I find disturbing is that the vast majority of the polls had a Republican bias, while only two internal Dem pollsters had a Dem bias.

        "A candle loses nothing by lighting another candle" - Mohammed Nabbous, R.I.P.

        by Lawrence on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 04:31:01 PM PST

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      •  Kos was the source, it was accurate (1+ / 0-)
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        Lawrence

        at the time it was written, it's shifting a bit as more votes are counted.  They still maintain a pretty decent record of accuracy.

        I'm not looking for a love that will lift me up and carry me away. A love that will stroll alongside and make a few amusing comments will suffice.

        by I love OCD on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 06:46:55 PM PST

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    •  ok, so (0+ / 0-)

      They were in the Fordham report, and so instead of "most accurate" I will say, "very accurate." My point stands.

      GOP: The Party of Acid rain, Abortion of the American Dream, and Amnesty for Wall Street.

      by Attorney at Arms on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 06:47:20 PM PST

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