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View Diary: A permanent GOP majority in the House? (65 comments)

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  •  Gerrymandering can cut both ways (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cany

    Take a look at the margins of the house races in states like Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania--all states that Obama won, but where Republicans controlled the redistricting after 2010. There were a lot of Republicans winning < 60% of the vote, while nearly all of the Democrats were well above 60% (sometimes in the 80% range).

    What the Republicans have done is concentrate the safe Democratic voters into a handful of districts, while diluting the safe Republican voter across the rest of the state. The blue districts aren't in any danger of flipping, even in a Republican wave election--we've likely reached our minimum number of house seats for a while. Conversely, a Democratic wave election could leave us with more House Democrats than we had in 2008. Granted, that's not likely to happen in 2014 unless Republicans really make a public mess of things during the coming budget fight, double down against the DREAM act, etc., but 2016? If there are presidential coattails to ride, I wouldn't count a Democratic House out of the picture.

    •  Do you extend that thinking to the south because (0+ / 0-)

      I don't see that happening. Maybe I am wrong.

      I also don't see it happening in UT, ID, ND, SD or NE, AK etc.

      It seems to me that this last election, which was run expertly by the dems, but largely focused on swing states, STILL didn't produce good results even in the best of circumstances.

      I could be very wrong.

      202-224-3121 to Congress in D.C. USE it! You can tell how big a person is by what it takes to discourage them. "We're not perfect, but they're nuts."--Barney Frank 01/02/2012

      by cany on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 02:14:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  We can't do much worse... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        cany, scotths

        I took a quick look at the House results for the southern states (not including FL), and only found four districts where a Democrat won with less than 60% of the vote (GA-12, LA-2, NC-7, TX-23). Good candidates with a solid ground game at least have a chance at flipping all of the single-digit races in MI, OH, PA, VA, NC, etc., and we don't need to worry about playing defense in many places. And depending on how the GOP responds on immigration reform, an increasing Hispanic turnout could help us flip some seats in TX, too.

        I'm not saying it's the most likely outcome, but we shouldn't give up on the House for the next decade. It's not impossibly out of reach.

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