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View Diary: A permanent GOP majority in the House? (65 comments)

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  •  Nothing is permanent in the House... (1+ / 0-)
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    maybeeso in michigan

    The lines drawn in 2000 allowed for the following party splits in the House, by election year:

    2002: 209 D, 222 R

    2004: 201 D, 232 R

    2006: 233 D, 202 R

    2008: 256 D, 198 R

    2010: 193 D, 242 R

    Average: 218 D, 219 R, with a median gain or loss by each party of 28 seats (!) between each election.  I.e., it was all over the place but tended toward an even split.

    Going into this year's election down 50 seats, it looks like we could narrow the R lead to 35 seats in the 113th Congress, requiring a pick-up of only 18 seats.  A lot can happen politically and demographically in ten years (see, e.g., Virginia, North Carolina).

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