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View Diary: A permanent GOP majority in the House? (65 comments)

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    Source: http://hosted.ap.org/...

    That has all contested races, including short term ones to fill unexpired seats for this session. Backing those out gives the Dems a 930,245 lead (55,879,116 to 54,948,871) in current contested races. That is actually a jump of 120K in the last day, so prospects for the Dems is looking up.

    The problem with these numbers, and the numbers at your link, is they do not include uncontested races. The GOP had 9 to the Dems' 4. Finding all these races is hard, but two from Ohio were at 240K votes each, so assume that is the average and the GOP picks up 1.2 million votes on the margin. The ThinkProgress numbers at your link had a 550K gap in contested races, and that had only grown to 700K a couple of days ago, so it looked pretty safe for the GOP. Adding 100K+ each of the last two days presents a different picture.

    Disclaimer: If the above comment can possibly be construed as snark, it probably is.

    by grubber on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 05:57:05 AM PST

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    •  Slight edit (0+ / 0-)

      I was remembering 810K as the contested lead yesterday, but it was 820K, so the latest numbers are only a 110K jump.

      Disclaimer: If the above comment can possibly be construed as snark, it probably is.

      by grubber on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 06:11:01 AM PST

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