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View Diary: The untold truth behind the GOP election meltdown (322 comments)

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  •  A reason to be optimistic... (15+ / 0-)

    2010 was a carbon copy of 1994---with a newly elected Democratic president and an economy that was still sluggish after a recent recession, Republicans ran with a fired-up base that was livid about a sweeping health-care reform measure (proposed in 1994; enacted in 2010).  Same "real America has now spoken" bullshit afterward.

    Health care is done; the ACA will be in effect and operating by the 2014 elections.  The tea party is waning and has proven itself a malignant cancer on the Republican Party, similar to some extent to how Gingrich completely over-played his hand after 1994 and ultimately got the boot.  (But thanks for the Senate seats, baggers!)  The big issues this go-round are going to be immigration and the fiscal cliff/tax cut extensions.  The ultimate solution to neither of these problems is going to involve something that could be characterized as a "liberal encroachment on freedom" or some such thing to get the conservative base fired up.  Moreover, some House Republicans are going to have to vote for the fiscal and immigration deals; if Obama wins on those (I expect a deal we will generally like on fiscal matters---no extension of top rate cuts, non-severe changes in social safety net, and I'm confident the Senate is not going to allow a gutting of Medicare to land on the president's desk; I expect a half-assed solution that is generally benign on immigration that will be deemed a bipartisan victory by most but that will be deemed a sell-out and loathed by the "we will not compromise" crowd), look for a few more reasonable House Republicans to get primaried by baggers, jeopardizing their seats.  Plus there is every indication the economy will be doing much better two years hence---unemployment is continuing to fall from the 2009 highs (6.0% is not out of the question for Nov. 2014), housing is coming back, etc.

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