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View Diary: Religion and the 2012 exit polls (93 comments)

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  •  As a Jew, I am kind of disappointed (17+ / 0-)

    with the Jewish vote number for Obama. But I think it's a little iffy because of the small sample size. For example, the exit poll showed Obama getting 71% (2 points better) among "White Jews" than the 69% he got among Jews. Almost all Jews in the US are white, and it seems strange that he would do worse among Jews of color.

    •  I had the same sense of disappointment. It's (6+ / 0-)

      odd that Obama's 2008 numbers among Jews were higher than Kerry's in 2004. I really don't think that the Republican attacks on Obama as being not supportive enough of Israel have gained much traction.
      I bet you're right about the sample size -- it would be good to know the margin of error in these subsamples -- bet it's huge. Could be that none of the differences are significant.

      We're not perfect, but they're nuts! -- Barney Frank

      by Tamar on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 01:18:01 PM PST

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      •  I think that the 'Obama-isn't-a-friend-of (6+ / 0-)

        Israel' nonsense actually DID resonate a little bit--remember that a 8% drop is less than 1 out of 10 people--but there were definitely Jewish democrats out there who weren't 'quite comfortable' with Obama, although they voted for him anyway in most cases.

        Also, a lot of Jewish people are upper income voters--and Romney generally did better with upper income voters (as you would expect).  Tamar--you're from Montgomery County, right?  Have you seen the map of DC metro votes?  Pretty solidly Obama--except for up/west county areas--and where else?   A good bit of Potomac :)

      •  The Orthodox population is growing (11+ / 0-)

        The non-Orthodox is stagnant or maybe lessening slightly, as younger people may be identifying their religion as "religiously unaffiliated."  The Orthodox oppose birth control and tend to have lots of babies, who grow up.  In 2008 the only four precincts in Baltimore City that voted for McCain were the four largely Orthodox precincts adjacent to mine, and I wouldn't think that would have changed this election.  And of course, as their kids turn 18, if they remain Orthodox, they are almost certain to vote Republican as their parents.

        "We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals, now we know that it is bad economics." Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Jan. 20, 1937

        by Navy Vet Terp on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 01:33:52 PM PST

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        •  I think it depends on how Orthodox they are. (5+ / 0-)

          I agree that the more Orthodox tend to be more conservative in general. But there are plenty of "modern" Orthodox who are liberal. The owner of our local yarn store is pretty religious -- she used to teach at the Jewish Day School, she keeps kosher and she strictly observes the Sabbath. I made a crack about the Republicans when I was in her store and then immediately thought it probably wasn't a good idea. However, she was entirely in agreement and was a huge Obama supporter.

          We're not perfect, but they're nuts! -- Barney Frank

          by Tamar on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 01:49:20 PM PST

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          •  In my modern Orthodox community (5+ / 0-)

            near Philadelphia, the vote was 80% or likely more ~ could have hit 90% ~ for Romney. Even some people who voted Democratic in state races voted Romney at the top of the ticket, from what they said. However, controlling for income as well as religion, that result doesn't seem to be too surprising....Taxes, Israel, and latent (and sometimes not so latent.....argh!) racism seem to be the big drivers, from what I can see ~ many (too many, in my opinion) have bought the idea that Republicans are better not only for Israel but for Jews in this country :-(

            There's a reason I keep my Facebook postings free of politics ;-)

            The worst sin - perhaps the only sin - passion can commit, is to be joyless. (Gaudy Night, Dorothy L. Sayers)

            by mayim on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 02:00:34 PM PST

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        •  Sad but true (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Navy Vet Terp

          I went to a Jewish high school and I know a decent chunk of my classmates were or are now Republicans, unfortunately. Most of them are Orthodox, although younger Jews in general identify as less Democratic than our parents' or grandparents' generations.

    •  that's the problem with zombie Sammy Davis (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mayim, Panbanisha, BYw
      Almost all Jews in the US are white, and it seems strange that he would do worse among Jews of color.

      yksitoista ulotteinen presidentin shakki. / tappaa kaikki natsit "Nous sommes un groupuscule" (-9.50; -7.03) 政治委员, 政委‽ Warning - some snark above ‽

      by annieli on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 01:25:28 PM PST

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    •  I'd be very curious (0+ / 0-)

      to see the Jewish number broken down by age groups. I suspect that's the differential -- those who grew up after 1967 and don't see everything as an existential threat to Israel are going to have a different view than those who see everything in the light of WWII and 1948.

    •  I think they scared lots of Jewish grandmothers in (0+ / 0-)

      Florida. "Obama wants to take away your social security and he's a secret Muslim."

      •  Not my Jewish grandma (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Panbanisha, Buckeye54, Creosote

        She doesn't live in Florida, and sadly, she was unable to vote in this election because she passed away last January. But she supported Obama in the primaries and general in 2008. She was active with the civil rights movement in the 1950's and 1960's and participated in the March on Washington. She said back in 2008 that she never thought we would see a black president in her lifetime. I miss her and am sad she wasn't here for this election, but I am grateful that she lived long enough to see Obama elected the first time.

        Slightly off-topic, but I wanted to share that.

    •  Jewish Vote (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Square Knot, BYw

      J Street did  both a national poll of Jewish voters, as well as polls of Jewish voters in Florida and Ohio.  They also have cross tabs, although I think the cross tab numbers are way too small to be meaningful.  The results are on their website.

    •  The number might be down (0+ / 0-)

      due to lower turnout of liberal Jewish voters in Long Island and New Jersey suburbia after Sandy.  Obama was going to win NY and NJ anyway and there were few meaningful downticket races.  I'd guess around a 75-25 true split.

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