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View Diary: The continuing saga of the Arizona ballot count (38 comments)

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  •  major errors (2+ / 0-)
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    manyamile, ThatPoshGirl

    Only if you make the assumption, contradicted by all the data that have come in since the election, that the new EVs look like the average old votes, not like the old EVs, do you get such pessimistic results

    Barber is consistently leading by 7% among Pima early voters.
    He trails by only around 12% in Cochise early voters. The late-counted ones have looked just like the early-counted ones, but not at all like the polling place ballots.  So continuing to apply the EV percents to the remaining EVs would leave Barber with about a 450 vote lead going into the provisionals.

    What happens then with the provisionals? All lore, nationwide and in AZ, is that provisionals tilt strongly D, for obvious reasons. Even if you make the very pessimistic assumption that the provisionals  then look like the EVs, Barber's lead then grows by hundreds when they're counted.

    .

    Michael Weissman UID 197542

    by docmidwest on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 11:50:32 AM PST

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