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View Diary: The Great Shrinking GOP (121 comments)

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  •  If the economy improves as seems likely (10+ / 0-)

    the GOP will struggle to come back.  A struggling economy was what gave them the idea they would win this time but things are swinging against them very quickly on social issues - witness comparatively quick swing in favor of gay marriage, continued strong support for women's issues.  If Dems have the right side on economy and on social issues plus favorable demographics, about the only thing the GOP has going for it is the redistricting advantage.

    Also there is a diary somewhere that explains why Texas will go blue by 2024 or so.  Basically, it shows the kid population of Hispanics is huge and even if there is no more immigration, just on the basis of those kids growing up, the majority of voters will be Hispanic by 2024.  Texas has 38 electoral votes, I think.  Make it solidly blue and Ohio won't matter anymore.  Texas red to blue in 12 years is amazingly fast change.

    •  Don't forget that Bush "won" in 2000 against (2+ / 0-)
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      Miggles, yellowdog

      a quasi-incumbent when the economy was humming along just fine.  The economy isn't everything.

      And Republicans will gain back some percentage of Hispanics.  So while I think it likely (and I very much hope) that the GOP will "struggle to come back", I wouldn't take it for granted.

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