Skip to main content

View Diary: More accurate than Nate Silver or Markos—and simple, too (70 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  Sorry you are not comparing (0+ / 0-)

    apples to apples .

    "Drop the name-calling." Meteor Blades 2/4/11

    by indycam on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 09:40:35 AM PST

    •  Sure (s)he is -- predictions really were that good (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      GoUBears, MichaelNY, ZoBai, IM, AoT

      I was (understandably) skeptical, and looked closely at dreaminonempy's morning o' Election Day prediction.  And dreamin' is right.  Just look at the tables under "regression prediction".  Them are the numbers.  Dreamin's predictions were really good, and beat kos and Nate.

      Dreamin' is like that great indie band who (so far) hasn't got a record contract but is making amazingly great music.

      I could be wrong.  Maybe I'm missing something -- I don't know precisely how Dreamin' arrived at their prediction, and maybe some of it is luck.  Can it be reproduced?  That's the big question, and it's fair to ask of any method -- especially non-quantitative ones like kos's, BTW.  But it's obvious from the post linked above that Dreamin's prediction was really fucking accurate.

      And that should be recognized, not dismissed in a one-liner, at the top of the comments, without explanation.

      Damn fine job, Dreamin'.  

      "Happiness is the only good. The place to be happy is here. The time to be happy is now. The way to be happy is to make others so." - Robert Ingersoll

      by dackmont on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 07:05:25 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  P.S. Better to describe kos's approach as (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, AoT

        .... involving a subjective step, i.e. a judgement call, in processing quantitative data.  This obviously has both an up and a downside.  It's not a great idea in physics, but in poltiical "science" there are so many variables that an educated judgement call can be a great idea.  It's just, obviously, going to lead to different results for different observers.  And it very likely won't be as reproducible.  Nate's model has no subjectivity built into it (although he hasn't released the "source code", so others can't replicate the results).

        "Happiness is the only good. The place to be happy is here. The time to be happy is now. The way to be happy is to make others so." - Robert Ingersoll

        by dackmont on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 07:25:04 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  How so? (0+ / 0-)

      Your argument fails to convince.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site