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View Diary: More accurate than Nate Silver or Markos—and simple, too (70 comments)

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  •  This is cool and useful, but not operating on (1+ / 0-)
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    MichaelNY

    quite the same level as 538. In the end, a main feature of full modeling is that you get full probability distributions for everything. For a topline number, this is fine. But once you're looking at asking deeper questions about a race, you'll need something like 538--- or something more advanced than 538.

    •  Certainly not! (4+ / 0-)

      Goodness no, this is nowhere close to the same level as 538. The intent was to try to find something as simple as possible that was better than the polls alone. This is about as simple as you can get - it's only got two inputs. By keeping it simple, it is easy for many people to replicate on their own and and put to their own uses.

    •  What 538 did (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      in this cycle, and I think it did it well, was to weight pollsters by prior performance, something that I did not do.  Chris Bowers and I had looked at this and concluded the averages were more accurate with Rasmussen in rather than out.  But our approach was binary - and as a result not as good in this election.  I think over a number of elections ours would still be a better approach - but 538 really does deserve credit for performing the hardest work in this analysis - picking which pollster is right or wrong.  

      The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

      by fladem on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 02:18:45 PM PST

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