Skip to main content

View Diary: More accurate than Nate Silver (308 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  Does social science support your hypothesis (5+ / 0-)

    that a sense of impending victory stifles the impulse of marginal voters to get to the polls?

    Isn't it also possible that more such voters will turn out to be part of a winning coalition?

    Agree with DeathDlr73 that in any case the answer is to keep pushing to GOTV.

    •  I would love an answer to that (5+ / 0-)

      excellent question, Deus Ex Machina.

      A reality-based one.

      Apathy is always a factor ("We're already winning, my vote won't matter")...

      ...but the desire to be on the winning team is a powerful social impetus, too.

      I'd love to hear from someone who actually studied this with - like, you know - science.

      "The ignorant mind, with its infinite afflictions, passions, and evils, is rooted in the three poisons. Greed, anger, and delusion." - Bodhidharma

      by hopesprings on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:45:13 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's called (12+ / 0-)

        the bandwagon effect.

        I saw it  on this site. When we were obviously winning, traffic was up. After the first debate, traffic went down.

        I see it at my SB Nation sites. When a team is winning, traffic skyrockets. When it sucks, it crashes.

        People like to be part of a winning effort. So the notion that being a winning team will lose support is patently absurd.

        •  Nice to know. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Jyrki

          Says something good about human nature and the momentum vs apathy question.

          Thanks!

          "The ignorant mind, with its infinite afflictions, passions, and evils, is rooted in the three poisons. Greed, anger, and delusion." - Bodhidharma

          by hopesprings on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:16:00 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Some "Facts" May Indicate Otherwise (0+ / 0-)

          Again, sorry to disagree.
          But if you look at the poll on my

          diary on this subject today

          Of the 36 respondents:

          If the polling indicated a 99% chance of success:
          8%      "Would vote, but nothing (i.e. GOTV) else"
          22%     "Would vote, do some easy GOTV"
          55%     "Would vote, GOTV, everything I'd do if we were losing"

          If the polling indicated a 95% chance of success:
          2%     "Would vote, do some easy GOTV"
          and
          If the polling indicated a 90% chance of success:
          2%     "Would vote, do some easy GOTV"

          Well, we'd lose 8% of potential GOTV'ers.  Not too bad. But Remember:  These are Kossacks who are involved enough to read an admittedly minor-league diary and take the poll.  Even amongst ourselves, a significant percentage say that they would slack off on GOTV to some extent if the polls looked really good. What would this poll look like, if Dem voters with "an average level of interest and commitment" took it?

          "So, Pal, now tell me: What did YOU do to help the least among your people?" "Well, ummm, Mr. God, Sir..."

          by lurkersince03 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 03:41:48 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site