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View Diary: More accurate than Nate Silver (308 comments)

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  •  It's called (12+ / 0-)

    the bandwagon effect.

    I saw it  on this site. When we were obviously winning, traffic was up. After the first debate, traffic went down.

    I see it at my SB Nation sites. When a team is winning, traffic skyrockets. When it sucks, it crashes.

    People like to be part of a winning effort. So the notion that being a winning team will lose support is patently absurd.

    •  Nice to know. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jyrki

      Says something good about human nature and the momentum vs apathy question.

      Thanks!

      "The ignorant mind, with its infinite afflictions, passions, and evils, is rooted in the three poisons. Greed, anger, and delusion." - Bodhidharma

      by hopesprings on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 11:16:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Some "Facts" May Indicate Otherwise (0+ / 0-)

      Again, sorry to disagree.
      But if you look at the poll on my

      diary on this subject today

      Of the 36 respondents:

      If the polling indicated a 99% chance of success:
      8%      "Would vote, but nothing (i.e. GOTV) else"
      22%     "Would vote, do some easy GOTV"
      55%     "Would vote, GOTV, everything I'd do if we were losing"

      If the polling indicated a 95% chance of success:
      2%     "Would vote, do some easy GOTV"
      and
      If the polling indicated a 90% chance of success:
      2%     "Would vote, do some easy GOTV"

      Well, we'd lose 8% of potential GOTV'ers.  Not too bad. But Remember:  These are Kossacks who are involved enough to read an admittedly minor-league diary and take the poll.  Even amongst ourselves, a significant percentage say that they would slack off on GOTV to some extent if the polls looked really good. What would this poll look like, if Dem voters with "an average level of interest and commitment" took it?

      "So, Pal, now tell me: What did YOU do to help the least among your people?" "Well, ummm, Mr. God, Sir..."

      by lurkersince03 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 03:41:48 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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