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View Diary: John Kerry for Sec of State (57 comments)

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  •  No and No (3+ / 0-)
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    aseth, Barbie02360, Sophie Amrain
    So we lose him in the Senate and we have to run against Scott Brown or some such in a lame duck...not a problem right?  We can and will defeat them no?
    If the Democrats give up Kerry's seat to a special election then I have no doubt whatsoever that we'll gave Senator Brown from MA again.   I believe previous time counts so he'd be the senior Senator from MA while Elizabeth Warren would be the junior Senator.

    In a special election with little time to campaign, Brown's name recognition and the make-up of the voters who vote in special elections I believe would make his chances very, very high for becoming a member of the Senate again.

    One seat you say, but after the 2014 election, that one seat could mean the loss of the Senate by Democrats.

    •  Precisely — EVERY SEAT COUNTS, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      According to Fish

      especially now.

      The diarist says

      I know the risk of the Senate seat.
      Oh, do you really? Because here in plain sight is the risk of the Senate seat come 2014:

      We ran the table in 2008 on Senate seats. There aren't many to win that we didn't already get. The reason for the "six-year itch" isn't just that people grow tired of an administration (on that front, we should be a lot safer than in 2010). It's that Senate seats picked up on Presidential coattails come up for re-election.

      Just take one look at that map. LA, AR, and AK might be as good as lost. Oh sure, maybe Alaska will shows its moderate side. Remember that our incumbent was elected in 2008 by a margin of 1.25% over the previous incumbent who was convicted of 7 felony corruption counts just before the election.

      SD, WV, and NC also present a problem. No blue states there. I bet one or two will hold on, for different reasons, but they all have different problems. In NC, previous election results from 2008 are hard to extrapolate to current elections because the GOP has increased their turnout by leaps and bounds. In WV, if Rockefeller doesn't retire, he'll have trouble with his statements on coal, and if he does, who do the Dems have with statewide recognition to replace him?

      Finally there's Montana, where we'd better hope Brian Schweitzer primaries out Boring Baucus. A couple other seats in otherwise blue states could end up competitive, too; Lautenberg in NJ is getting awfully old.

      What could we pick up? I'm hoping for Susan Collins in ME to see the writing on the wall, follow Snowe, and retire, of course. There's an outside chance of a fight in Kentucky, but McConnell is safer staying to the right for now and not getting primaried out. The rest are hopeless. Deep South, Great Plains, Idaho, and Wyoming. That's it. It's the safest Republican map they could imagine.

      We'll lose probably 4-5 of those 7 seats, and then maybe pick up Maine. Let's say our net is 4 seats — that puts us at 51 seats. We'd have to lose 2 more to lose the Senate (given the tie-break). I'm a lot more comfortable with that than assuming we start at 50 seats, and even one more seat gives Republicans control. The Texas seat may well be competitive come 2026 or so, but I'm not holding my breath.

      Ultimately, it's all about the Supreme Court. Justice Ginsburg hasn't been helpful at all in trying to ensure her own party keeps her seat. If we'd won even one fewer seat this round I'd be screaming from the rooftops for her to resign now. But even if she played along after an unexpected loss in MA, we don't know when Scalia's health will fail. We need to be ready at any time to swing the court back. That's what's at stake -- not just holding seats, but ending the right-wing majority on the Court.

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