Skip to main content

View Diary: Libertarians provided the margin for Democrats in at least nine elections (125 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  I doubt that third party votes are ideological (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, MichaelNY

    Some of them clearly are, but I don't actually think there's a large difference in impact between having a Green and a Libertarian or a Constitution Party candidate on the ballot. They take the generic protest vote, which largely comes from the party less happy with their nominee.

    For instance, given that Tierney is a very weak Democrat and Tisei kind of libertarian, I doubt that those were actually libertarians voting for the libertarian there. Wouldn't be surprised if most of them voted for Obama-- I could see a split like 45% Obama, 30% Johnson, 25% Romney.

    •  I don't think there are any examples, though (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      At least this year, of a race where the Lib provided the margin for the Republican.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 02:16:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  MA6 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I think you're right about MA6, Tierney had baggage that's probably the only one of the 9 where the Libertarian took more votes from the Dems than from the GOP.

      I suspect that generically if you take the Libertarian off the ballot, of every 6 Libertarian voters, maybe 1 would vote for the Dem, 2 for the GOP, and 3 would leave it blank or vote for another protest candidate. I remember seeing a survey of Ron Paul primary voters that said (IIRC, I can't find it online) 17% would vote for Obama, 45% for Romney, and others would vote for Johnson or other protest candidates.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 02:29:32 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  that is my feeling as well (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      No real numbers to back this up, but given how unlikable both Beurkle and Maffei are in NY-24, I do think the protest vote went Green at least in part from the right as well. The majority of conservatives around here are way more moderate than Beurkle but would also never vote for Dan. Plus, Rozum's numbers were pretty impressive, and I highly doubt Dan would have had a 12% margin if she wasn't running. I could, however, be wrong.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site