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View Diary: Face it Republicans. Obama is the Democrat's Reagan. (264 comments)

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  •  This post shows where RCP/unskewed polls erred (0+ / 0-)

    "It wasn't until 2009, after - AFTER - working for the Obama campaign and for Health Reform in my community that I changed parties - in part because I was invited to become a delegate."

    When someone in such a situation told a pollster that they planned to vote for Obama and considered themselves a Democrat, a pollster who followed professional methodology (by recognizing that self-reported Party ID is a dependent variable) would tally a projected Obama vote.  But RCP and "unskewed" polls would say, "hey, we're getting more Dems in this sample than past elections and/or party registrations say we should, so let's apply weighting that, in effect, won't tally this response."

    Then, come early voting or election day, mdmslle (the OP here) actually did vote, for Obama as a pollster would have been told.

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