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View Diary: Petraeus exonerates the White House on Benghazi (UPDATE with FOX NEWS Cover-up!) (215 comments)

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  •  How intelligence is produced (6+ / 0-)

    The righties have jumped on DP's statement that he believed immediately that it AQ and terrorism.  And somehow it didn't make it into the talking points after other agencies looked at it and added input.  So they claim that the WH somehow was involved.

    Here's the thing.  DP doesn't say he has evidence or a source or anything substantial to link it to AQ immediately.  He has a belief.  

    Guess what?  Intel estimates are not written based on belief, faith, gut feeling, or an inkling.  There needs to be some evidence, some fact, something concrete on which to base conclusions and analysis.  

    And something else, for some reason these people act like DP's belief is somehow non contestable.  They may think that DP is King Shit as CIA Director.  But there are 16 other "official" intel agencies in the Intelligence Community.  And every single one thinks their analysts are smarter and better than their counterparts.   Same for the directors of each agency.  None of them would have sat there and said "DP has spoken, so that must be how it is."  Nope, they all think they are just as smart and capable.  They don't need the CIA to tell them what to think.

    They also seem to ignore the intel assessments are based on reporting at that time and are subject to revision as additional information comes to light.  An initial estimate that is found to be wrong later, may very well have been accurate based on the information available when it was written.  

    They also ignore that when DP talked to Congress on 9/14/12 the information available led him to brief that it was a spontaneous attack sparked by the anti-Muslim video.  

    Now he has changed his position (and of course lots more info is available) which is pretty common practice.

    Oh yeah, he also says the idea the WH changed anything is BS.

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