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View Diary: AZ CD-2 now being called for Democrat Ron Barber (90 comments)

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  •  He is basing his prediction on historical (12+ / 0-)

    precedent.

    You know what they say when they advertise mutual funds: "past performance is not a guarantee of future earnings."

    The future is ours to make.

    And God said, "Let there be light"; and with a Big Bang, there was light. And God said "Ow! Ow My eyes!" and in a flash God separated light from darkness. "Whew! Now that's better. Now where was I. Oh yea . . ."

    by Pale Jenova on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 09:32:00 AM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  but the problem is that (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Pale Jenova

      Presidential elections bring out more of the inconsistent voters and most of them sadly are Dems.

      If Democrats were unable to take back the House this election, it is highly unlikely that they'll be able to do it in 2 years.

      In fact, I would expect Republicans to win back all of these seat gains and a few more in 2014.

      I also worry about the Senate being flipped, especially if President Obama appoints Kerry to a cabinet position and Brown is back in the Senate again.

      Off year elections are usually not good for the party of the sitting President.   Add in the newly gerrymandered districts and it doesn't look good for the Dems winning the House any time soon.

      •  The Repubs won most of the easy seats in 2010 (0+ / 0-)

        So the ceiling is not very high for them in the House.

        The Senate is more of a problem. However, if Democrats and Barack Obama lead by being Democrats--not the half-hearted, squishy, Grand Bargainy, bipartisany, compromisey, reach-across-the-aisle-and-snuggle-wuggle-our-Republican-friends center right Republican lite crap we saw before 2010, we can beat the odds.

        But Nate Silver is right--historically, the odds are against us. Bill Clinton did beat them in 1998 however.

        And God said, "Let there be light"; and with a Big Bang, there was light. And God said "Ow! Ow My eyes!" and in a flash God separated light from darkness. "Whew! Now that's better. Now where was I. Oh yea . . ."

        by Pale Jenova on Sat Nov 17, 2012 at 06:58:48 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  The districts were not so badly (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Pale Jenova

          gerrymandered and that was a backlash against the whole impeachment nonsense.

          Don't get me wrong, the Republicans are ignorant enough to implode as we've seen in the last 2 election cycles with Teahadist candidates.

          The thing is, even this election cycle with all the rape and contraceptive nonsense Dems still came up short in the House.

          I'm hoping like hell to be wrong, but I really don't see a way to regaining the House in 2014.    I can see hanging onto the Senate by a fingernail though.

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