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View Diary: An ideological realignment driven by demography (130 comments)

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  •  It's the Village (19+ / 0-)

    Sadly, since the punditocracy doesn't KNOW any of these people, it's all about their friends and that is the crux of the problem (as you state so well). Look at the President, official Washington.  A significant part of his coalition looks like him. Another part looks like you but these people are gay/unmarried/younger than you are and you still can't take them seriously.

    No point, really, in making this clear, since the Republicans need to keep appealing to their base. You know, the one that didn't elect a president in 2012.

    -7.75, -8.10; All it takes is security in your own civil rights to make you complacent.

    by Dave in Northridge on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 09:37:53 AM PST

    •  Despite all the evidence to the contrary, (5+ / 0-)

      Villagers will continue to think that the electorate will return to a "more normal" 80% white.   Why?  Because those are the people they know and, therefore, that, to them, is what matters.

      Eventually, they will tire of being so consistently wrong and will begin to recognize reality.  I just don't expect it to be too manifest prior to 2016.  Perhaps, by 2020 their vision will no longer be distended.

      Ultimately, the only thing that matters with respect to preserving choice is who will be nominating the next Supreme Court Justices.

      by Its the Supreme Court Stupid on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:07:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The Republicans want it to return (17+ / 0-)

        to 80% white -- but since they know that's not going to happen demographically, they'll try to make it happen by making it harder for non-whites to vote.

        "If we ever needed to vote we sure do need to vote now" -- Rev. William Barber, NAACP

        by Cali Scribe on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:11:01 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Eventually they will die off (4+ / 0-)

        Krauthammer and Will and the rest will eventually follow Broder into the Great Villager Reunion in the Sky.

        Then a new crop of Villagers will arise who will have their own collection of truisms that are completely unrelated to facts or evidence and a new Nate Silver will give us a great book mocking their pabulum.

        The GOP is the party of mammon. They mock what Jesus taught.

        by freelunch on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:20:26 AM PST

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        •  The problem is that when myth fights science (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Observerinvancouver
          "If a philosopher or social scientist were to try to encapsulate a single principle that yoked together the intellectual process of civilization (sic), it would be a gradual dismantling of presumptions of magic. Brick by brick, century by century, with occasional burps and hiccups, the wall of superstition has been coming down. Science and medicine and political philosophy have been on a relentless march in one direction only -- sometimes slow, sometimes at a gallop, but never reversing course. Never has an empirical scientific discovery been deemed wrong and replaced by a more convincing mystical explanation. ("Holy cow, Dr. Pasteur! I've examined the pancreas of a diabetic dog, and darned if it's NOT an insulin deficiency, but a little evil goblin dwelling inside. And he seems really pissed!") Some magical presumptions have stubbornly persisted way longer than others, but have eventually, inexorably fallen to logic, reason and enlightenment, such as the assumption of the divine right of kings and the entitlement of aristocracy. That one took five millennia, but fall it did.
      •  Don't expect on any change coming from the VSP. (3+ / 0-)

        The Villagers won't tire of being consistently wrong and being unable to recognize reality until their corporate pimp owners threaten to withhold paychecks.

        You might get individual defectees like David Frum, but there will always be another pundit beating down the door for a chance to whore themselves out for a seat in the Kool Kidz Klub. All they have to do is stroke their egos of their pimps and occasionally disseminate propaganda. And the best way to stroke someone's ego is to tell them that they'll get everything they want without any effort because they personally are that awesome. It's an awesome gig.

        Until their corporate pimp owners order the Villagers to tell the truth, it ain't going to happen. Partly because the corporate pimp owners aren't even aware what's really going on themselves! Even if Stalin is angry at the crop yields, executing one patch of scientists and shipping in a new staff isn't going to help the situation if he demands that these new guys also believe in Lysenko's dogma.

      •  It's not just demographics (8+ / 0-)

        It's also culture.  Whites are voting for Democrats because of specific reasons:  women are frightened by Republican culture wars.  Better-educated whites see the value of education, and are less likely to swallow Republican nostrums (unless they personally benefit.)

        John Judis and Ruy Teixeira called this shift almost a decade ago, looking into the future.  They called the demographic shift, as well as the shift of subsegments of the white non-Hispanic vote toward the Democrats.  They've been proven right in the main, and the trends are not yet completely played out.  Republicans will have to become a different party to generate a different trend, but they're stuck in the extremist, racist corner they've painted themselves into.  It's an ugly corner, one most people are not drawn to if they're not there already.

        Citizens United defeated by citizens, united.

        by Dallasdoc on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:59:09 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Look at the differences in Texas vs California (5+ / 0-)

          to see that it isn't only about demographics, both states have large percentages of Latino/Hispanics and yet one is dominated by Democrats but the other (TX) is dominated by Republicans. What's the difference? Turnout. If we Democrats don't learn how to engage voters and get them out to elections we will continue to fail to take advantage of the demographic shift. The Democratic Party has to engage with voters all year long, year after year, not just for six months leading up to elections. Here in Guadalupe County, TX we've finally figure that out now we're trying to figure out how to do it.

          "I agree with you, I want to do it, now make me do it!" ~ FDR

          by JC Dufresne on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 11:16:57 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  the difference is more than turnout (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Dallasdoc, erratic, bartcopfan

            california hit majority-minority a lot earlier than texas did, has always had a more democratic-tilting latino population than texas, has a much larger proportion of liberal white voters, has district lines that aren't drawn to minimize democratic and minority representation, and has a state economy more reliant on education and less reliant on energy extraction and the military (although once upon a time, CA was a lot more like TX in that regard). finally, both states tend to get in-migrations of left and right-wing ideologically-minded white voters, respectively, which reinforce their political trends.

            CA:
            non-hispanic white: 40%
            latino: 38%
            asian: 14%
            black:7%
            multiracial: 4%
            native american: 2%

            TX:
            non-hispanic white: 45%
            latino: 38%
            asian: 4%
            black: 12%
            multiracial: 2%
            native american: 1%

            •  And CA had Prop. 187 (4+ / 0-)

              ... which I suspect galvanized Latino elegtoral participation to a much greater degree than Texas has yet seen.  

              Interesting that while both states show the same proportion of Latinos in the population, California's Asian population more than makes up for its lower proportion of African-Americans.  Wonder when Republicans will start paying more attention to the fast growing Asian populations?

              Citizens United defeated by citizens, united.

              by Dallasdoc on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 11:51:30 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  May Ceiling Cat and FSM bless your efforts and (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            erratic

            inspire  others to do the same.  I hope I'm around to see Karl Rove's reaction when Texas turns blue.

            We must, indeed, all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately. B. Franklin

            by Observerinvancouver on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 12:09:35 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  no they won't. (0+ / 0-)
        Eventually, they will tire of being so consistently wrong and will begin to recognize reality.
        they get paid not to.  frankly, some of them have reached "end-stage", the point where they're no longer capable of recognizing any reality outside the beltway. incest has a way of destroying any vision that doesn't accord with what you want it to be. they really should all be put under medical care, for their's and the country's safety.
      •  Also, these are political reporters.... (0+ / 0-)

        ....who broke into the game in the 1980s, so they assume that everything is going to be like that. Democrats controlling Congress, Republicans with a lock on the White House, an 80% white electorate, etc. Also, they have these nostalgic memories of Bob Dole, Ronald Reagan, and Tip O'Neil going out for beer and burgers and coming up with their beloved bipartisan plans to deal with budgets and other pressing national issues. Which is why they are always so nostalgic for a period of time that's gone and isn't coming back (and thank god, as I recall, the 1980s was a time when AIDS was called the "gay plague," for example).

    •  The Villagers are out of touch (7+ / 0-)

      Dick Cheney isn't a raving anti-gay bigot because he has had to deal with a lesbian in his family. George Will cares about how we treat people with Down Syndrome or Cubs fans because he has been forced to live with it. Neither care about people who have no health care coverage because they are fundamentally incapable of putting themselves into the shoes of others. The Villagers are generally unable to do this. They just talk to each other, repeating conventional wisdom, even though there is no wisdom or understanding in their proposals.

      Facts are of no value to them. Nate's mockery of the Villagers and his validation is the best thing that we have seen happen to the Beltway in years.

      The GOP is the party of mammon. They mock what Jesus taught.

      by freelunch on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:13:56 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Many years ago George Will lauded the cutting (0+ / 0-)

        back or cutting out of a number of federal government programs.  However, he lamented the baleful effects on a program for the mentally challenged.  I wanted to yell at him that could he not understand that many others had similar feelings about programs they benefited from?  He was totally oblivious to others' pain and seemed to think that only he and his son were suffering from the cutbacks. That column made a lasting impression on me.

        We must, indeed, all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately. B. Franklin

        by Observerinvancouver on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 12:17:46 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  The pain of others is only one of many things (0+ / 0-)

          that George The Willful has been totally oblivious to throughout his long career as an obnoxious twit whose knowledge of baseball is not nearly as accurate as he believes.

          When all else fails, try thinking!

          by edtheengineer on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 01:37:22 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Even the liberal villagers.... (0+ / 0-)

        ....are out of touch - witness the city of Portland passing a poll tax "for the arts" - something that even Margaret Thatcher couldn't get away with.

        9-11 changed everything? Well, Katrina changed it back.

        by varro on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 07:24:08 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  The optimism on this site is way beyond reason (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      whaddaya, elphie

      ....and this article is an example of that. People....a comically stereotypical country club Republican with a tendency to say the wrong thing at the wrong time still got over 47 percent of the vote, get that? Republicans picked up governorships and continue to dominate legislatures in a majority of states.

      What I'm saying is...the Democrats still have a problem with presenting a believable and trustworthy agenda to the public. If Obama abandons his commitments this time, the Republicans could easily turn the game around in four years.

      •  Granted, he got 47 pct but you have to look at (5+ / 0-)

        the demographics as talked about in this diary for the clearest picture.  72 pct of the electorate is white and this number will decrease each election from now on.  

        We have some work to do in state legislatures and governorships, that is true.  But that is a worthy goal for us to continue to pursue, more Democrats elected to state legislatures and as governor. We continue to plug away and also work on the US House and electing more and better Democrats as we always do.

        Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

        by wishingwell on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:45:36 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  He got 47 percent in an election.... (0+ / 0-)

        ....where you already had a huge minority of the electorate who were not going to vote for any Democrat, particularly not a black one and that's in an economy with 7.9% unemployment. So, I'd say, despite all that, Obama did pretty well and Romney did pretty poorly.

    •  This reminds me of a tempest in a tea pot we had (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Dave in Northridge, varro

      in Canada a few months ago.  A preliminary version of a new currency design showed an oriental woman working at a microscope.  The final version showed a Caucasian woman.  After the entirely predictable hue and cry, it seemed that some people (presumably white) objected to an "ethnic" representing a "typical" Canadian.  Apparently it didn't occur to them that Caucasians were also an ethnic group.  Sigh!

      We must, indeed, all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately. B. Franklin

      by Observerinvancouver on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 11:50:38 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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