Skip to main content

View Diary: Midday open thread (119 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  The problem for Gallup is other pollsters (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    InsultComicDog, JeffW, Gooserock, Aunt Pat

    were better. In fact, I think no poll showed Romney better than a +1 lead in their final polling(Ras also had Romney by 1).

    Pew and ABC/WaPo were exactly right at Obama +3, and I think PPP was Obama +2 or +3.

    •  I understand that (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Aunt Pat

      but most of the error was not a result of the actual polling, but of their skewed interpretation of their own polling.

      I Support Puerto Rican Statehood

      by InsultComicDog on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 12:41:42 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Particularly the nutty LV screens (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Aunt Pat, annieli

        that are now thoroughly discredited.

        For if there is a sin against life, it consists perhaps not so much in despairing of life as in hoping for another life and in eluding the implacable grandeur of this life. - Albert Camus

        by Anne Elk on Sun Nov 18, 2012 at 01:06:09 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Right, but that's an important part of polling (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Aunt Pat, InsultComicDog

        Getting the LV screen correct. Gallup was off by about 4 points, while other pollsters were accurate with their LV screen.

        As someone noted on election day, it seemed like Gallup was trying to have it both ways with an RV model showing Obama up, and LV with Romney up.

        •  I guess what I'm saying is (0+ / 0-)

          they don't need to overhaul what they are doing top to bottom... mostly they just need to reconsider what it means to be a "likely voter".

          I think almost all of the likely voter modeling was wrong for almost all pollsters, and wrong in the Republican's favor. Gallup did the worst in this category (although went a few steps further yet into crazy land).

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

  • Recommended (148)
  • Community (64)
  • Elections (43)
  • Civil Rights (37)
  • Culture (32)
  • 2016 (32)
  • Baltimore (28)
  • Texas (27)
  • Law (27)
  • Economy (27)
  • Environment (26)
  • Bernie Sanders (26)
  • Hillary Clinton (24)
  • Labor (23)
  • Rescued (21)
  • Barack Obama (20)
  • Health Care (20)
  • Republicans (18)
  • Freddie Gray (17)
  • International (17)
  • Click here for the mobile view of the site