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View Diary: Do states have 'house effects' when it comes to polling? (68 comments)

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  •  This depends (3+ / 0-)

    If it were possible to get a truly random sample of voters, and if pollsters managed this (or came close to it) then it would not matter much, if at all.

    However, the above is not possible. Not only is each pollster's sample biased, but each pollster uses a different weighting scheme to try to eliminate this bias.

    In these circumstances, combining 10 different pollsters may be a good bit better than having one pollster get 10 times the sample.

    Increasing the sample reduces the variance.

    Increasing the number of pollsters may reduce bias

    (Here I am using bias in its technical sense - results that are systematically different from the true value - and do not mean to imply any nefarious intent).

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