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View Diary: Do states have 'house effects' when it comes to polling? (68 comments)

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  •  Observations re Hawaii and NJ (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, madhaus, MichaelNY

    Regarding NJ: While the entire state was affected by Sandy, two of the counties that have traditionally given Republican candidates big pluralities (Monmouth and Ocean) bore the brunt of the storm's damage.  That may be the better explanation of why the Democratic pluralities exceeded those predicted in polls.

    Regarding HI: HI has one of the lowest turnout rates of any state in the Union, regardless of whether you measure turnout as a percentage of registered voters; percentage of voting age population (VAP) or percentage of voting eligible population (VEP).  In 2008, HI was dead-last among the 50 states in both VAP turnout and VEP turnout.  It's a big problem there.  So, even a small error in pollsters' estimates of who actually turns out in an election can have outsize impacts on their prediction of pluralities.

    Anyhow, that's my 2 cents worth.  I'd be interested in hearing if others think either or both of those explanations make sense.

    -6.38 -5.33 "It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Emiliano Zapata

    by electionlawyer on Sun Dec 23, 2012 at 05:40:35 PM PST

    •  On NJ (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      I looked at the numbers 2008 vs 2012 and saw that Obama  did better in NJ because he performed very well in the northeastern area, winning 77% in Hudson County and doing better than expected in Passaic and Bergen Counties too.

      He also did better in Ocean County than in 2008 so his response may have gotten him a few percentage points there.

      Monmouth is an interesting county though. Gore won there in 2000 but since then it has stayed Republican.

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

      by Alibguy on Sun Dec 23, 2012 at 11:24:25 PM PST

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