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View Diary: Well Now. Muslim Brotherhood HQs across Egypt are being torched by protesters this morning. (247 comments)

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  •  Yeah, I am skeptical as to whether or not this (6+ / 0-)

    has legs.  Western observers tend to overstate certain aspects of current events; see e.g. the two week period where everyone thought that el Baradei was the frontrunner in the Presidential election.  That always baffled me; el Baradei is the stereotypical son of Egypt who focuses on international matters because Mubarak's Egypt offered no opportunities for success.  He never really did have a serious chance in an election by Egyptians and about Egypt, in part because people viewed him as more Western than Arab.

    It could be big, it could be nothing.  The "Tahrir" coalition was vast; how much of that coalition supports the Muslim Brotherhood's views on governance?  10%?  75%?  Beats me.

    I don't want to overplay my hand - when I say skeptical I don't mean "I doubt anything will happen," I mean, "I don't think anything's certain to happen, but I would be completely unsurprised if ANYTHING happens, be it anything from a full seizure of power by the far right to a descent into a new revolution to nothing at all.  None of those outcomes would surprise me; there are too many moving parts.

    "The first drawback of anger is that it destroys your inner peace; the second is that it distorts your view of reality. If you come to understand that anger is really unhelpful, you can begin to distance yourself from anger." - The Dalai Lama

    by auron renouille on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 03:56:30 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  God, but this is stupid timing for him! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      auron renouille, Jim Domenico

      I agree with what you say here. But this is idiotic timing because he was just in better with the International community than ever before due to yesterday, and now he's probably in worst standing. To move outside of the regional issues and look to what this has done to his global standing, because the International community is not impressed by this attempt to get rid of multiple Governmental branches so that he can run a dictatorship, more or less...

      Such -- SUCH -- a stupid move! I was thinking yesterday that he might have support from the world community. Today, no way.

      •  Idiotic timing? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        FistJab, JesseCW

        The last poll on record had him at 70 percent approval.  Why assume Morsi doesn't have political capital to spend?

        •  I am specifically referring to International (0+ / 0-)

          standing. Right now, he is poised to assert his role as a dictator, period. So far, that's not how he's run things, nor is it how he campaigned. Since Egypt is the second largest recipient of U.S. funds, and since we don't support dictatorships, it does not bode well for continued support for Egypt. If he doesn't want those funds, that's fine, but the Egyptian economy is down, not up, and the living index isn't looking good (and some of our aid is humanitarian relief aid). Tourism is a huge chunk of Egypt's business, and that's hanging on by a thread, although Morsi promised to rebuild it to boost the economy.

          He was voted in at 51%. I don't know his approval rating. Do you have that link?

          We don't know what that looks like right now either since there is opposition, plain and simple. Granted, it's probably not majority opposition. But will it become so IF Egypt loses almost 2 billion dollars a year from the U.S. plus gets smacked by the U.N. and also is chastised (doubtlessly will happen) by other nations too?

          Thus, I contend that this is a politically poor calculation.

          •  A quick Google reveals (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Mathazar

            tons of articles which condemn Morsi from his SUPPORTERS as well as opponents for threatening the success of the Arab Spring Revolution. The tones are far more dire than anything I've said, and again, this is from his supporters. In Egypt.

          •  By international, do you mean you? (0+ / 0-)

            Or perhaps a Chosen One who you hope shares your point of view?

            •  What? I mean the U.N. at the very least. EOM (0+ / 0-)
            •  You do know that the ascription of motivations (0+ / 0-)

              to people you don't know is a classical logical fallacy, do you not? It's a form of ad hominem, FWIW.

              Try this: don't try to guess what other people are motivated by; instead, ask them from a position of sincerity. I infer, but could be wrong, that you somehow think that I support Morsi's bid for Dictatorship when, in fact, I am appalled by it and have made that clear in my comments. If you have questions for me, kindly ask them. Do not put words in my mouth or jump to conclusions that fit your narrative about "supporters," of which I wouldn't count myself amongst if he is, in fact, gunning for dictator status as it seems.

          •  HHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA (0+ / 0-)
            and since we don't support dictatorships
            HAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAAH

            OH....FUCK

            I never knew how dry your wit could be.

            I apologize for underestimating you.

            "the Agency continues to verify the non-diversion of declared material at these facilities and LOFs."

            by JesseCW on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 01:02:49 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  It should read as "openly" (0+ / 0-)

              Obviously the United States has enabled more dictatorships -- as quietly as possible -- than I can count. As for open support for the notion of a dictatorship? We don't respond well to that because it does open up inquiry into some of our more problematic policies to both the American electorate AND the International community. I can appreciate that my comment was not specific enough here and understand, upon re-reading, how it could be misconstrued.

              •  Right. Bahrain? We're really subtle about our (0+ / 0-)

                support?

                Jordan? Saudi Arabia?

                I don't think I really need to go on.  From Pinochet to Suharto to Mubarak to Abdullah II , we support and have supported dictators very openly.

                "the Agency continues to verify the non-diversion of declared material at these facilities and LOFs."

                by JesseCW on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 04:04:46 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  Republicans ain't the only ones... (0+ / 0-)

      ...who don't know the ground as well as they think they do.

    •  Not just western observers. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      blueoasis

      Aside from the fact that some people think it's ironic that Romney got 47 percent of the vote...he got 47 percent of the vote.

      For some reason, we keep forgetting to multiply that rate by the size of the population.

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