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View Diary: Jump in Sea Level Slams U.S. East Coast (108 comments)

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  •  There's a paper you need to read & understand (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.agu.org/...

    I think you can find the complete paper on Google scholar. Also you need to read NOAA AOML's paper on the effects of ocean heat content on hurricane intensity.

    The northward expansion of the Atlantic warm pool has major consequences. The Gulf stream runs deep, carrying an enormous amount of heat. Big storms feed off that heat so SST is not the only issue. It's a matter of heat content. Either way you look at it however, this summer and early fall had record high water temperatures off the northeastern U.S.

    Reports by experts that you can freely find on the net (but I don't remember the links) have said that sea level has risen 1 ft at the Battery tide gauge over the past 100 years. Some of that is subsidence related to bowing tied to post glacial rebound. Most of that is caused by the thermal expansion of water in response to ocean warming.

    WRT to sea level rise, the long-term line is there for everyone to see on the graph. I'm not denying it or hiding it so please don't say I'm cherry picking. Sea level was at or near record high levels when Sandy passed over so the sea level peak is directly relevant to the damage to shorelines.

    look for my eSci diary series Thursday evening.

    by FishOutofWater on Fri Nov 30, 2012 at 12:09:39 PM PST

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    •  In the AMS (0+ / 0-)

      The hurricane heat potential (HHP) is called, "Upper-Ocean Heat Content"

      0-700M

      http://oceans.pmel.noaa.gov/

      I, personally, am more concerned about what happens when the AMOC begins to slow down.  

    •  the rate of increase is increasing (0+ / 0-)

      at an increasing rate. Its what scientists refer to as "surprising acceleration" in their observed rates of change.

      1990-1995 - 1mm year; total 5 mm rise
      1995-2000 - 1 mm year; total 10 mm rise
      2000-2005 - 2 mm year; total 20 mm rise
      2005-2010 - 3 mm year; total 35 mm rise
      2010-2015 - 5 mm year; total 60 mm rise

      2015-2020 - 8 mm year projected; total 100 mm rise
      moving shoreline inland 100 feet so that seawalls
      levees and replenishment fail, barrier islands are breached, storm surges begin to break on the mainland, shore road infrastructure to include roads, railroads, bridges, airport runways, marinas, water treatment , sewer treatment, power plants, LPGN and fuel oil storage are destroyed sources of pollution. In Florida south beach restaurants no longer need to buy seafood it lives on the reef they have been transformed into.

      If you extend the observations forward a little what began with the oceans coefficient of expansion due to temperature rise begins to be augmented by melting polar ice.

      2020-2025-13 mm year projected; total 165 mm rise
      2025 -2030-21 mm year projected; total 270 mm rise
      at 300 mm or about 1 foot of rise the shoreline has moved inland 300 feet in flat areas and places like Brownsville Texas are now part of the ocean. The hope of holding temperature rise to 1 degree, mediating climate change by reducing atmospheric carbon is dashed when the release of methane hydrates from siberian lakes and every shoreline around the world causes a "surprising acceleration" in the rate at which atmospheric and ocean temperatures rise.

      2030-2035 -34 mm year projected; total 440 mm rise
      In 2037 the shoreline has moved inland about a furlong
      and most harbors on the east coast are now part of Atlantis
      2035-2040 -55 mm year projected; total 715 mm rise
      by 2033 with a meter rise most east coast nuke plants are becoming very hard to service.

      Even as rising population makes more people dependent on the oceans for food, the increased temperature acidification and salinity of the oceans and atmosphere cause oxygen producing bacteria in the north Atlantic to die off resulting in dwindling fish stocks and serious problems for oxygen breathers generally.

      Fortunately the most likely result is that the cause of the problem will be removed  without us around to cause problems and in a few millenia things will get back to normal

      Live Free or Die --- Investigate, Incarcerate

      by rktect on Sat Dec 01, 2012 at 11:11:00 AM PST

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