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View Diary: Want the nomination in 2016? (187 comments)

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  •  I see Clinton vulnerabilities. You don't? (6+ / 0-)

    I think she's the favorite to win by far. Moreso now than last time. But lets look at the other fundamentals:

    1. Message

    Why Hillary? Because its her turn? Not enough. Somebody who brings a fresh message could outflank her easily.

    2. Hillaryland

    Good at governance, bad at campaigning. Is she willing to jettison her team of nincompoops and bring in the Obama people? James Carville couldn't win a national election these days. He's from a different era. Somebody with fresh message and the Obama Campaign's vaunted moxie could beat her.

    3. Atmospherics

    Bill and Hillary Clinton have a lot of enemies in the Democratic Party, a party they no longer control. Obviously they both are doing everything they can to get right with Obama people, but it seems to me there is going to have to be a lot of coddling and fence mending.

    •  I absolutely agree that she has vulnerabilities (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LSophia

      but she would be much more formidable in 2016 than in 2008, and in 2008 it took a Barack Obama to beat her. In 2008, the democratic primary electorate was almost 50-50 between BO and HRC, in 2016 presumably HRC will retain much of her own support from 2008 and I would venture to guess that she would get significant support from BO's 2008 democratic coalition. In 2008 she lost for basically three reasons in my mind, 1) her Iraq vote and 2) her team was significantly outclassed by BO's campaign 3) she face an exceptional candidate in BO. In 2016, 1) the Iraq war will be over and there would be 8 more years from her Iraq vote 2) She's a smart woman, I really doubt she would allow her campaign to be outclassed like it was in '08 (If she rehires Mark Penn though....) 3) I doubt there would be a candidate of the calibre of BO to oppose her in the 2016 primary. We will see, but if she runs, she will be very, very formidable. She would be more formidable than she was at the start of the 08 cycle, with the experience to know not to take things for granted. That's very tough to beat IMO.

    •  "Somebody" isn't going to appear out of thin air (0+ / 0-)
      Somebody who brings a fresh message could outflank her easily.
      Who?

      Cuomo? Warner? O'Malley? Schweitzer? Warren? Patrick?

      We aren't talking about a race 8 years from now, where an unknown could potentially rise. We are talking about a race that will formally begin in 2 and a half years time. Everyone who is a potential candidate is already on the radar screen.

      It's not a question of somebody, but who?

      I don't see any potential Democratic candidates who could beat Hillary Clinton, should she run for the nomination again.

      It took a candidate of immense skill and charisma to beat her the last time. There are no Obama's on the field this time.

      •  Definitely not Cuomo. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Egalitare

        Basically its O'Malley or Schweitzer. I don't think we've seen enough of either to be able to make any firm conclusions about how potent they would be out there.

        At the same time, if Clinton's message is stale and boring centrist pablum, then whoever is able to go out and generate the passion would get some earned media, some buzz, and some money.

        Remember, the Democratic Party isn't the Republican Party. We ENJOY fighting with each other.

        •  I'm from Maryland (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Meteor Blades, brooklynbadboy

          I've voted for O'Malley twice for Governor.

          He doesn't even generate excitement here in Maryland. I am profoundly grateful he got the marriage equality legislation passed this year. But he is not going to set the campaign trail on fire. He doesn't have the political skills, charisma, or financial backing to knock off Clinton.

          If you want an idea of O'Malley's prospects, you need look no further than a recent Washington Post Poll. It found only 22% of Maryland voters think O'Malley would make a good President. 66% think he would not. In a heavily Democratic state like ours, that means even a lot of Democrats here don't support an O'Malley run for President. Those are very weak numbers.

          I know less of Schweitzer, but I have doubts he can appeal to the urban base of the Democratic Party. His quirky personality works in a retail politics state like Montana. But I don't think he is polished enough for the national spotlight, where campaigning is conducted through sound bites.

        •  Omalley and Schweitzer will be run over by Clinton (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          brooklynbadboy

          I mean full on massacre....

          Clinton basically played the good soldier.  As did Bill.  She will be rewarded.  And with so much focus on women last cycle, there isn't a chance that gender doesn't rise to be the single major coalition that triumphs.

          She has a few vulnerabilities, but not by any stretch imagination anything unmanageable.   And she will have Obama's backing.  This isn't an open race.  It is a someone with a huge lead and others trying to catch up with very little time on the clock.  I truly think this could be over before it starts.

          "Small Businesses Don't Build Levees" - Melissa Harris Perry

          by justmy2 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 06:45:06 AM PST

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        •  Actually...here is the one person that could (0+ / 0-)

          possibly beat Hillary...

          Michelle Obama....

          And boy...would I pay money literally just to see that knock down drag out fight for the heart of the Democratic party...

          Now I would never want to see it from political standpoint...it would be purely divisive and bad for progressives...BUT...the literally Ali/Frazier entertainment could be the greatest political battle in history...

          Will never happen...but it would literally be like two kingdoms battling for the heart of a empire...

          "Small Businesses Don't Build Levees" - Melissa Harris Perry

          by justmy2 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 07:52:55 AM PST

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    •  Enemies (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LSophia

      Who you thinking of?

      While watching Michelle Obama's face during the Big Dog's speech was sort of priceless (me thinks she's still pissed off at Bill and Hill) I think she's earned the respect of most people that supported Obama in the wider public.

      While I really hope that Brian Schweitzer runs, I do think Hillary make for a plausible candidate, nominee, or POTUS.

      [I]t is totally not true that Mitt Romney strapped Paul Ryan to the top of a car and drove him to Canada. Stop spreading rumors! -- Gail Collins

      by mbayrob on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 06:13:18 PM PST

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