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View Diary: Bob Costas continues the dialog about guns and violence-support him by tuning into his show (182 comments)

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  •  Why not? (3+ / 0-)

    Brazil has more four times as many intentional homicides and ten times fewer guns.

    •  Really? Because to check that I googled (5+ / 0-)

      it and only could find this.

      Brazil: Fewer guns means fewer deaths
      Posted on Wed, 2010-05-05 23:00

      New research reveals that gun homicides in the state of São Paulo (Brazil) dropped 70% between 1999 and 2008. The report argues that the strong 2003 gun law (the Disarmament Statute) was vital to this decrease, especially the prohibition on carrying guns, which was enforced effectively in São Paulo state.

      •  Numbers are your friend. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kestrel9000, lettuce kucinich

        From Gunpolicy.org:

        Rate of Civilian Firearm Possession per 100 Population

        The rate of private gun ownership in Brazil is 8.03 firearms per 100 people

        In Brazil, annual homicides by any means total

        2009: 43,90915 16
        2008: 57,271
        2007: 55,611
        2006: 58,643
        2005: 54,308
        2004: 57,185
        2003: 60,121
        2002: 57,910
        2001: 55,539
        2000: 51,804
        1999: 52,26915
        1998: 49,976
        1997: 47,891
        1996: 44,372
        1995: 41,595

        And by your own source, a 70 percent drop in gun ownership correlates a 14 percent increase in all homicide in the same period.
        •  What you are leaving out (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gramofsam1, 1BQ, SilentBrook

          is that Brazil's homicide BY GUN rate is off the charts, much higher than ours. People in Brazil are killing each other with guns, not knives. Yes, there are fewer guns there, but just as it is in the U.S., gun murders are a major problem in Brazil.

          •  So basically, you don't care about lowering (3+ / 0-)

            total homicide, just "gun homicide"?

            Why? Does St. Peter let people killed with knives into heaven, but not guns?

            A 70% drop in gun ownership coincident with a 14% drop in homicide suggests exactly what we on the RKBA side suggest - that methods of homicide and suicide are fungible.

            And even that 14% drop isn't established to be a direct correlation, since the cite also mentions massive police enforcement, which would easily chill organized crime activities.

            Non enim propter gloriam, diuicias aut honores pugnamus set propter libertatem solummodo quam Nemo bonus nisi simul cum vita amittit. -Declaration of Arbroath

            by Robobagpiper on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 11:29:37 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  14 percent increase. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Robobagpiper

              So much for the Disarmament campaign.

            •  Pete and Robo, (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              gramofsam1, Tonedevil, 1BQ, oldpunk

              I haven't clicked through, so I am trusting the quoted section is accurate.  If accurate, you two are having a reading comprehension issue.  Doc's article says a 70% decrease in gun homicides not a 70% decrease in gun ownership.  

              Though I will note that your incorrect reading conveniently supports your conclusion far better than an accurate reading would.:-O

              Furthermore, if a 70% decrease in gun homicides results in a 14% decrease in all homicides, then yes, many murderers have demonstrated multi-disciplinary expertise in either weaponry or killing technique or both.  But, obviously, not all homicidal Brazilians have proven capable of making the transition mandated by the new rules.  

              Or perhaps they couldn't be bothered to attend the government sponsored continuing education seminars.

              Either way, the research seems to indicate less dead Brazilians, at least by homicide, for the time period covered.

              "...you're going to find that many of the truths we cling to depend greatly on our own point of view." Obi-Wan Kenobi

              by thepook on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 12:41:36 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I was just skimming after Pete's comment (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                oldpunk

                But you're right, I misread, though it still doesn't serve the gun controller's argument - nationwide, after a disarmament law, homicides went up, not down, 14%; gun homicides in a part of the country may have dropped 70%, but how did that affect the overall homicide rate? Not stated Pete cited only the nation-wide stats, but it doesn't look good - it would take a massive increase in homicide in the rest of the country for the state of Sao Paulo, its most populous, to have an actual homicide rate that tracked with the alleged gun homicide rate. Either way, the claim that the disarmament law improved things is ridiculous.

                My snarky comment about gun controllers considering gun violence as categorically different from the same degree of violence with a different instrument still stands.

                Here we have a country that apparently traded gun homicides for other methods, and then some, and this is supposed to be an improvement? Only if you think people killed with guns is somehow worse than killed by other means.

                Non enim propter gloriam, diuicias aut honores pugnamus set propter libertatem solummodo quam Nemo bonus nisi simul cum vita amittit. -Declaration of Arbroath

                by Robobagpiper on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 12:52:31 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  not trying to be argumentative, (well maybe a bit) (4+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Robobagpiper, gramofsam1, 1BQ, oldpunk

                  But doesn't the chart list some 60,000 homicides in 2003, the year they passed the law.  And then, by 2009, the number comes down to some 44,000?  Admittedly, the chart shows a very slight drop for a few years after the passage of the law, with a massive drop from 2008 to 2009.  Something big, and currently unknown to me, happened from 2008 to 2009.  

                  As an aside, this particular topical tragedy is a poor example for those in favor of gun control, myself included.  While I agree with doc that this likely wouldn't have happened without access to a gun, at least that day, there is no gun control regime, absent total prohibition (a farce in a country with more guns than people) that would have prevented this man from having a gun.

                  I am in favor of gun control in my own household, because I know I would be the first person shot with it, by my own girlfriend!. A woman with so little grasp of the handle, she wouldn't be capable of flying off of it.  Not that it would change the result in my case.

                  Peace.

                  "...you're going to find that many of the truths we cling to depend greatly on our own point of view." Obi-Wan Kenobi

                  by thepook on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 01:30:45 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  mother of our beautiful daughter (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Robobagpiper, gramofsam1, 1BQ, oldpunk

                    Neither of us is going anywhere.  Ergo, no guns in our house.

                    "...you're going to find that many of the truths we cling to depend greatly on our own point of view." Obi-Wan Kenobi

                    by thepook on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 01:39:12 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  The 2009 number is anomalous indeed (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    oldpunk, thepook, Pete Cortez

                    One wonders if it's a partial number - or if the 2006 drug decriminalization law was relevant in any way.

                    Nonetheless, the law was implemented in 2003; and yet the 2004-2008 numbers seem to fluctuate around the same average value as the 2001-2003.

                    Furthermore, the 14% increase from 1999-2008 tracks with population, so in reality, the homicide rate was constant through the period.

                    And, if you go further into the site Pete links, you find that nationwide, gun homicides per capita are only down a small amount between 2002 and 2008.

                    Non enim propter gloriam, diuicias aut honores pugnamus set propter libertatem solummodo quam Nemo bonus nisi simul cum vita amittit. -Declaration of Arbroath

                    by Robobagpiper on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 01:43:54 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Doc's source is...well...crap. (0+ / 0-)

                    Let's look at the numbers for gun homicides this time:

                    In Brazil, annual firearm homicides total

                    2008: 34,678
                    2007: 34,147
                    2006: 34,921
                    2005: 33,419
                    2004: 34,187
                    2002: 34,085
                    2000: 30,855

                  •  I doubt that. (0+ / 0-)

                    Show her this.  If a 6 year old can handle an 1911, she can just about any firearm.  You might consider putting in some range time with her.

      •  asdf (4+ / 0-)
        A new analysis shows gun-related violence has actually fallen steadily in Virginia since 2006, despite the record number of firearm sales.

        VCU professor Thomas Baker compared state crime data for 2006 through 2011 with gun dealer sales estimated by the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

        The research shows the number of guns purchased soared to 73% in the six year period, while gun related crimes fell 24%.

        Baker says the comparisons seem to contradict the premise that guns lead to more crime.

        "That the people have a right to bear arms for the defence of themselves and the State ..."- Vermont Constitution Chapter 1, Article 16

        by kestrel9000 on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 11:15:25 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

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