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View Diary: Best Senate predictions of 2012 (60 comments)

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  •  Any fool can call the race a week in advance (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ginger1, Matt Z

    Nate was giving Obama greater than 60% odds six months out.

    Economics is a social *science*. Can we base future economic decisions on math?

    by blue aardvark on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 06:36:14 AM PST

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    •  This doesn't proof anything (0+ / 0-)

      You will knever know that the 60% odds six months out were true

      My personal model (aka gut feeling) already showed me in 2011 that Obama had a 90% reelection chance. Because after Perry had his "Oops" moment it was clear that there was no dangereous opponent in the race.

      So I'm 50% better than Nate.

      The most dangerous worldview is the worldview of those who never viewed the world - Alexander von Humboldt

      by germanliberal on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 07:39:35 AM PST

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