Skip to main content

View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/8 (342 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  Interesting... (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwmiv, zyangunc, sacman701, dufffbeer, lordpet8

    Gibson is now in the fourth-most Democratic seat held by a Republican (only IRL, Valadeo, and Gary Miller have seats Obama did better in).  D+1 seat.  

    In contrast, while NY-18 improved a bit in terms of PVI (going from R+1 in 2008 only numbers to EVEN in 2012), it's now to the right of Owens NY-21, given the latter shifted more to the left.  It may end up the most Republican-leaning seat held by a Democrat in New York, although we'll have to see how NY-01 turns out.  

    NJ-02 is the only remaining Republican seat we don't have numbers on I'm certain Obama won.  Obama may have carried NJ-03, NY-02, NY-11, NY-22, NY-23, PA-06, and PA-15 as well, although I'm guessing he only carried two or three of these.  

    •  Yep (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, lordpet8

      Lowey and Tonko stayed the same at D+5 and D+7, respectively.

      Also, MO-6 went from R+9 to R+12 and IN-6 stayed the same at R+12.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Tue Jan 08, 2013 at 07:00:55 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Within your list, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, abgin

      I bet that Obama carried NJ03 and NY11, and lost the rest.

      If you look at the NY / PA spreadsheets, even though not complete yet, it is pretty clear that Obama narrowly lost NY-22 (maybe within 1K) / NY-23 / PA-06 / PA-15. Most likely he won NY-11, given that the Brooklyn portion of NY11 is a little more Dem friendly.

      Dave Wasserman now has NJ02 / NJ03 / NY11 definitively in Obama column, NY22 / NY23 / PA06 / PA15 in Romney column, and only NY01 / NY02 / PA07 as TBD. Of the TBDs, my guess is that Romney won PA07 by no more than 3K votes,  or about 1%. NY01 is a possible Obama district by around 10K. And if that is true, then Romney possibly won NY02 by less than 10K.

      That will bring the total number of CDs carried by Obama to 208, and Romney to 227. Given the 4% presidential popular vote difference, you will know how effectively the Republican map makers exploited the concentrating of Dem votes in major urban areas to created lopsided vote sinks, especially in states like PA, OH, MI, and VA.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site