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View Diary: New German Data Shows No End in Sight for Coal (230 comments)

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  •  I'm not cherry picking anything (1+ / 0-)
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    gzodik

    I'm focusing on the topic of the diary - the latest trends in German electrical production, which just happens to be the newly released 2012 stats . . .

    But it seems like deja vu all over again - how many times do we have go through somebody pointing out Germany's continuing increase in fossil fuel consumption and you then changing the topic and say - hey, look over there, and be distracted from the 900 pound gorilla in the room.

    •  Ok, so you're following the diarist's lead in (0+ / 0-)

      cherry-picking.

      "A candle loses nothing by lighting another candle" - Mohammed Nabbous, R.I.P.

      by Lawrence on Wed Jan 09, 2013 at 01:40:11 AM PST

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      •  If you continue to made strange accusations, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        terrypinder

        I'll be happy (and to set the record straight, obliged) to debunk them factually.

        For example, this:

        Before you start making further wild accusations about supposed lies, please look at the last ten years, on page 9 of the report.  Fossil fuel use in electricity production declined in that period, despite the shutting down of ten nuke plants.
        First, this comparison is between one year (2012) and the average use over the past decade.  Therefore from the data given it is impossible to know if use really declined over the past decade (the data for 2002 would have to have been given to make that claim, but it wasn't).

        Second, if one takes a close look at what you are touting, the claim comes up rather short of being significant in any way (except to maybe portray the absolute folly of what Germany has been doing).

        In particular, here are the numbers involved for a comparison of 2012 with the average of the past decade:

        Brown coal was up by 6.81 Twh
        Hard coal was down by 3.07 Twh
        Natural gas was down by 4.46 Twh

        So, overall compared the average usage over the previous year, fossil fuels were down by 0.723 Twh.

        That's out of a total of 289 Twh or 0.25% (one quarter of one percent).

        So, after a a decade of herculean efforts to go green, investing (on a per capita basis at least) far and away more on "clean" energy than any other country on the planet, Germany has decreased fossil fuel use by one quarter of one percent!

         Just how freakin' insane is that?  Especially considering the trend of the past year where coal generation increased twice as much as renewables is likely to be continued into the future Big Time as subsidies for solar and/or wind are diminished and new coal plants are brought on line.

        Finally, the main cherry picking I see in the diarists' diary is the effusive praise of renewables, e.g, this

        Installed solar capacity increased by 29% from 2011 to a very respectable 32.38GW, and energy production from solar was up a whopping 44% for 2012 clocking in at 27.94 TWh.
        In reality that "whopping" increase represents 8.5 Twh, or 45% of the 18.9 Twh increase in coal-generated electricity in 2012.    So, in fairness, the double plus whopping increase in coal needs to be duly noted as well, not swept under the rug . . . .
        •  It's not insane to Germans, obviously. (1+ / 0-)
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          translatorpro

          Geographically, Germany is a small country, and just one major nuclear accident would permanently cripple the entire country.  They're obviously not willing to take that risk anymore, so they are eliminating the immediate risk by replacing nuclear with renewables, modernizing their grid, and also replacing fossil fuels with renewables(to a lesser extent).  Once they shut down their last nuclear power plants, however, renewables will be eating into fossil fuel use only.

          I don't think it's insane, at all, especially since their big push for renewables has been the main factor in driving down the price for renewables globally, which in turn has also greatly increased the pace of renewables installation globally.  If they had just stuck to nukes, that would not have happened.

          It is far more important for us all to have developing nations leapfrogging to renewables as they build new capacity than it is for Germany to reduce fossil fuel use at an accelerated pace, and that is exactly what German energy policy has accomplished.

          I'm looking at the forest here, and not just a few trees.

           

          "A candle loses nothing by lighting another candle" - Mohammed Nabbous, R.I.P.

          by Lawrence on Wed Jan 09, 2013 at 05:54:37 AM PST

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          •  That's a rather amusing idea (0+ / 0-)
            Geographically, Germany is a small country, and just one major nuclear accident would permanently cripple the entire country.
            insofar as your neighbors in France apparently do not have this particular phobia.    

            which is exactly the reverse of what would be the case if stereotypes of the two nations held true to form . .. .  (e.g,. if * any * country could be expected to do nuclear power safely, it'd be Germany).

          •  And how long will this take? (0+ / 0-)
            Once they shut down their last nuclear power plants, however, renewables will be eating into fossil fuel use only.
            To go from 73.8 Twh to 167.8 Twh of capacity (to make up for the lost nuclear generating capacity) will require another 10 years if last year's increase in solar and wind generating capacity of 8.3% can be maintained.

            If that rate is cut in half however (which seems likely as subsidies, etc, are fizzling out) it will take another 10 year or so beyond that to start eating into fossil fuel emissions.   IOW, around 2035 or so . . . .    

        •  You are the one who called him a liar, dude, (0+ / 0-)

          which was completely unnecessary. On the other hand, I've often noticed that you tend to forget what you wrote two days ago, so that may explain your lapse...

          „Wer kämpft, kann verlieren. Wer nicht kämpft, hat schon verloren.“ - Bertolt Brecht

          by translatorpro on Wed Jan 09, 2013 at 02:25:30 PM PST

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