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View Diary: Salon [re CPI]: "...outraged progressives are organizing in advance " (143 comments)

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  •  Thanks for the comment coffeetalk. (7+ / 0-)

    Harry Reid and Bernie Sanders don't agree that its a deficit or debt problem, that raising revenues is a better place to look, no? Agree with much of the rest of what you wrote.

    Still,  I am with those who say that with all teh crazy in the House now is not the time to be 'reforming' the safety net.

    Sure, would love too see Medicare for All and allowing public option on drug purchases.

    What are you talking about when you say Medicaid proposals.  You mean beyond what was in ACA ?

    Move Single Payer Forward? Join 18,000 Doctors of PNHP and 185,000 member National Nurses United

    by divineorder on Sun Jan 13, 2013 at 11:58:14 AM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  Yes, beyond what was in the ACA (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      VClib

      The Medicare Trustees Report for 2012 said that assuming:

      1.  The most favorable outcomes for the efforts of the ACA to reduce costs; and
      2.  We continue to do the Doc Fix (which we just did again with the fiscal cliff,

      That Medicare alone will grow to over 10% of GDP when our children are in the program.  That's not 10% of federal spending.  That's 10% of GDP.  Just by way of perspective, right now the federal government takes in, in all revenue, about 15% of GDP, and the efforts are to bring it back up to 18% of GDP.  In other words, when our children are in the Medicare program, that one program alone will consume over half of all revenue taken in by the federal government.   That does not even count Medicaid and Social Security.  

      It will be very interesting to see what the 2013 Medicare Trustees report will say this spring.  

      The Republicans made a proposal -- premium support -- that the President and Democrats clearly found unacceptable.  In my view, it is incumbent on the President to make some proposal of his own to fix the unsustainable growth of Medicare as an alternative.  

      I think this focus on chained CPI for Social Security is misguided, as that is not the bulk of our long term problem.  I want to hear what the President proposes to do to address the real long-term problem.  

      •  Plenty of things he could suggest (14+ / 0-)

        Move Single Payer Forward? Join 18,000 Doctors of PNHP and 185,000 member National Nurses United

        by divineorder on Sun Jan 13, 2013 at 12:28:20 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Completely unrealistic and unsupported (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          VClib

          First, look at the biggest one -- the Wall Street transaction tax.  That is not feasible unless it is a global tax.  Those kinds of transactions are very mobile, and if you tax them here, people will just do trading on overseas exchanges.  When I've seen projections like that, they are basically what would be earned if we imposed such a tax AND if we continued to have the same amount of trades here.  That assumes that people don't change behavior so as to avoid paying taxes -- which is completely unrealistic. So, before I can give that number any credibility whatsoever, I need to know what assumptions go into that number, and how does it account for the trades that will go overseas if we impose such a tax here in the United States when it is not on trades made on overseas exchanges.  

          Second, what corporate tax loopholes?  When I've seen numbers like that, it often involves "we should tax overseas profits" or something like that, without any mention of how you can do that in a way that will work, and will actually raise that kind of money.  When you talk about real "loopholes" you can close here, like oil and gas "subsidies," they are actually must smaller numbers.  At any rate, if you look at our STATED corporate tax rate (35%), it is one of the highest in the world and is completely not competitive (in terms of global investment.  It is those "loopholes" which drive the EFFECTIVE tax rate down and keep us somewhat competitive.  So, nobody is going to just close the loopholes and keep that rate at 35% -- which is generally what those kinds of estimates assume.  Instead, what we are far more likely to do -- and what the President supports -- is closing loopholes AND lowering rates to keep our effective corporate tax rate competitive with the rest of the world.  

          I could go on and on.  You need to give some indication of the bases for those estimates before they will have any credibility.  

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